Tianjin Teda 0-0 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Beijing Guoan travel to TEDA Football Stadium to take on Tianjin Teda. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 9 August 2023, 12:35 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Tianjin Teda stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tianjin Teda's home record at TEDA Football Stadium: 3W 7D 0L from 10 Super League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Beijing Guoan — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beijing Guoan's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Beijing Guoan are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Tianjin Teda register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Beijing Guoan in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Tianjin Teda, 2 for Beijing Guoan and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Tianjin Teda trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Beijing Guoan trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 55% versus Beijing Guoan 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 43% | Beijing Guoan 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.57 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.951 / defence 1.016 | Beijing Guoan attack 0.973 / defence 1.073. League average goals — home 1.537 / away 1.245. Data: 53 Tianjin Teda games / 54 Beijing Guoan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 43% | Draw 28% | Beijing Guoan 28%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Beijing Guoan 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tianjin Teda at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Beijing Guoan (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Tianjin Teda 70% | Beijing Guoan 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: TEDA Football Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 9 Aug 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 43% | Draw 28% | Beijing Guoan 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.57 / Beijing Guoan 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.951 / def 1.016 | Beijing Guoan attack 0.973 / def 1.073 | league avg home 1.537 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Beijing Guoan xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 12:35 on Wednesday 9 August 2023 at TEDA Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan?
Tianjin Teda 0 - 0 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at TEDA Football Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 43% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan?
Record (4 meetings): Tianjin Teda 1W | Draws 1 | Beijing Guoan 2W.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Beijing Guoan (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Tianjin Teda's attack rating (0.95) and Beijing Guoan's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Beijing Guoan's attack versus Tianjin Teda's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
43%
2.30
28%
3.52
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.80
1.23
Beijing Guoan xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
13%
7.90
6%
17.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.5 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.7 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.23 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Tianjin Teda's recent record stands at 20W 19D 14L from 53 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beijing Guoan, meanwhile, have gone 25W 14D 14L across 53 games — 1.68 PPG, with L-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Beijing Guoan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Tianjin Teda on 1.49 PPG, Beijing Guoan on 1.68. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Tianjin Teda have managed 10W 11D 5L from 26 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Beijing Guoan's away record stands at 11W 6D 9L across 26 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 1.72 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beijing Guoan in 60%.
Last 53 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Blended
Beijing Guoan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 20W 19D 14L in their last 53 games (1.49 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 25W 14D 14L in their last 53 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Beijing Guoan away?
Tianjin Teda's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.58 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Tianjin Teda or Beijing Guoan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tianjin Teda have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Beijing Guoan in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Tianjin Teda's record when hosting Beijing Guoan specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Tianjin Teda
4
Draws
4
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan?
From 10 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 2, Beijing Guoan have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Beijing Guoan 2-4 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Tianjin Teda see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 54%, Beijing Guoan 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Tianjin Teda) and 69% (Beijing Guoan). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play Beijing Guoan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Tianjin Teda's games and 65% of Beijing Guoan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Tianjin Teda's matches and 69% of Beijing Guoan's.
Do Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Beijing Guoan in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Tianjin Teda's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at TEDA Football Stadium, Regular Season - 21, as Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan drew 0-0 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.57 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.23 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Tianjin Teda fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Beijing Guoan landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.95 / defence 1.02 against Beijing Guoan attack 0.97 / defence 1.07, drawn from 53/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 43% | Draw 28% | Beijing Guoan 28%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 43%, Beijing Guoan 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tianjin Teda 1.49 PPG, Beijing Guoan 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.