Changchun Yatai 1-0 Chengdu Better City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chengdu Better City at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Changchun Yatai vs Chengdu Better City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Changchun's People Stadium plays host to Changchun Yatai versus Chengdu Better City in Super League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Saturday 12 August 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Changchun Yatai have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D D D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Changchun Yatai's home record at Changchun's People Stadium: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Super League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Changchun Yatai are significantly better at Changchun's People Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Chengdu Better City's overall Super League record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Chengdu Better City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chengdu Better City away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Changchun Yatai against 1.30 for Chengdu Better City. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Changchun Yatai lead 0W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Changchun Yatai half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 36% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Chengdu Better City half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Changchun Yatai 58% versus Chengdu Better City 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 54% | Chengdu Better City 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 1.40 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 1.048 / defence 1.146 | Chengdu Better City attack 1.135 / defence 0.857. League average goals — home 1.556 / away 1.236. Data: 55 Changchun Yatai games / 55 Chengdu Better City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 31% | Draw 28% | Chengdu Better City 41%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | Chengdu Better City 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.40 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chengdu Better City at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chengdu Better City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Changchun Yatai 80% | Chengdu Better City 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Chengdu Better City | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Changchun's People Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Aug 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 31% | Draw 28% | Chengdu Better City 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Changchun Yatai 1.40 / Chengdu Better City 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 1.048 / def 1.146 | Chengdu Better City attack 1.135 / def 0.857 | league avg home 1.556 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Chengdu Better City xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Chengdu Better City kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Chengdu Better City kicked off at 12:35 on Saturday 12 August 2023 at Changchun's People Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Chengdu Better City?
Changchun Yatai 1 - 0 Chengdu Better City.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Chengdu Better City being played?
The match is being played at Changchun's People Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Chengdu Better City part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Chengdu Better City is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Chengdu Better City?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 31% chance of winning, Chengdu Better City a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Chengdu Better City?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Chengdu Better City will score (BTTS).
Will Changchun Yatai vs Chengdu Better City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Chengdu Better City?
Record (3 meetings): Changchun Yatai 0W | Draws 2 | Chengdu Better City 1W.
What form are Changchun Yatai and Chengdu Better City in?
Changchun Yatai (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-D-D-L. Chengdu Better City (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Changchun Yatai's attack rating (1.05) and Chengdu Better City's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Chengdu Better City's attack (1.14x) against Changchun Yatai's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
31%
3.18
28%
3.60
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
0 – 1
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
3.01
1.61
Chengdu Better City xG
3.18
31%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
20%
5.00
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
6%
15.89
10%
9.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 8.0 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.1 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.8 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Chengdu Better City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Chengdu Better City expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 1.61 for Chengdu Better City, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Chengdu Better City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Changchun Yatai's recent record stands at 18W 18D 19L from 55 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with D-D-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Changchun Yatai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chengdu Better City, meanwhile, have gone 28W 17D 10L across 55 games — 1.84 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Chengdu Better City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Chengdu Better City by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Changchun Yatai heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Changchun Yatai have managed 9W 9D 9L from 27 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Chengdu Better City's away record stands at 13W 7D 7L across 27 trips, a 1.70 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Chengdu Better City are on 1.51 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Chengdu Better City in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Blended
Chengdu Better City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Changchun Yatai and Chengdu Better City in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 18W 18D 19L in their last 55 games (1.31 PPG), while Chengdu Better City have gone 28W 17D 10L in their last 55 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or Chengdu Better City away?
Chengdu Better City's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 1.33 PPG; Chengdu Better City away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Changchun Yatai or Chengdu Better City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Changchun Yatai have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Chengdu Better City in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 12 September 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Chengdu Better City go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Chengdu Better City won 4-0 on 3 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Changchun Yatai have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Chengdu Better City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Changchun Yatai
2
Draws
5
Chengdu Better City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Chengdu Better City?
From 8 meetings on record, Changchun Yatai have won 1, Chengdu Better City have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Chengdu Better City last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2025, when Chengdu Better City 1-0 Changchun Yatai.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Chengdu Better City?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Changchun Yatai 59%, Chengdu Better City 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Changchun Yatai) and 37% (Chengdu Better City).
On the defensive side: Chengdu Better City in 48%; Changchun Yatai have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Chengdu Better City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Changchun Yatai play Chengdu Better City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Changchun Yatai's recent matches and 41% of Chengdu Better City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Changchun Yatai vs Chengdu Better City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Changchun Yatai's recent games and 37% of Chengdu Better City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Changchun Yatai and Chengdu Better City tend to score early?
Changchun Yatai have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Chengdu Better City in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Changchun Yatai defy the odds to beat Chengdu Better City 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Changchun Yatai beat Chengdu Better City 1-0 at Changchun's People Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 1.40 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.61 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Chengdu Better City landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 1.05 / defence 1.15 against Chengdu Better City attack 1.14 / defence 0.86, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 31% | Draw 28% | Chengdu Better City 41%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Changchun Yatai win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 54%, Chengdu Better City 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.31. Form was overturned, with Changchun Yatai winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.