Meizhou Kejia 1-0 Qingdao Jonoon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Meizhou Kejia at 66%, yet other data sources diverge — this Meizhou Kejia vs Qingdao Jonoon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium plays host to Meizhou Kejia versus Qingdao Jonoon in Super League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Saturday 12 August 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Current Form
Meizhou Kejia's overall Super League record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Meizhou Kejia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Meizhou Kejia have posted 5W 1D 4L at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Qingdao Jonoon (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Jonoon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Qingdao Jonoon's away record: 0W 2D 8L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Meizhou Kejia 0W, Qingdao Jonoon 1W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2023, ended 0–2 with Qingdao Jonoon winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Meizhou Kejia — key trading statistics (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Qingdao Jonoon — key trading statistics (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Meizhou Kejia 81% and Qingdao Jonoon 43% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Meizhou Kejia 71% | Qingdao Jonoon 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Meizhou Kejia 2.20 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Meizhou Kejia attack 1.297 / defence 1.070 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.661 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.556 / away 1.236. Meizhou Kejia carry an above-average attack strength of 1.297 — their λ of 2.20 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 55 Meizhou Kejia games / 21 Qingdao Jonoon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 66% | Draw 22% | Qingdao Jonoon 12%. Fair-value odds: Meizhou Kejia 1.52 | Draw 4.55 | Qingdao Jonoon 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Meizhou Kejia (66%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Meizhou Kejia at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.07 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Meizhou Kejia 80% | Qingdao Jonoon 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Meizhou Kejia vs Qingdao Jonoon | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Aug 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 66% | Draw 22% | Qingdao Jonoon 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 53% | xG Meizhou Kejia 2.20 / Qingdao Jonoon 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Meizhou Kejia attack 1.297 / def 1.070 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.661 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.556 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Meizhou Kejia (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.20
Meizhou Kejia xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Qingdao Jonoon xG
53%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Meizhou Kejia vs Qingdao Jonoon kick off?
Meizhou Kejia vs Qingdao Jonoon kicked off at 12:35 on Saturday 12 August 2023 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What was the final score in Meizhou Kejia vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Meizhou Kejia 1 - 0 Qingdao Jonoon.
Where is Meizhou Kejia vs Qingdao Jonoon being played?
The match is being played at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What competition is Meizhou Kejia vs Qingdao Jonoon part of?
Meizhou Kejia vs Qingdao Jonoon is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Meizhou Kejia vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our statistical model gives Meizhou Kejia a 66% chance of winning, Qingdao Jonoon a 12% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Meizhou Kejia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Meizhou Kejia vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Meizhou Kejia and Qingdao Jonoon will score (BTTS).
Will Meizhou Kejia vs Qingdao Jonoon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Qingdao Jonoon?
Record (1 meetings): Meizhou Kejia 0W | Draws 0 | Qingdao Jonoon 1W.
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Qingdao Jonoon in?
Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Meizhou Kejia's attack rating (1.30) and Qingdao Jonoon's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 2.20 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Qingdao Jonoon's attack (0.66x) against Meizhou Kejia's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 55/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Meizhou Kejia Win
66%
1.51
22%
4.59
12%
8.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.20
Meizhou Kejia xG
Total xG
3.07
0.88
Qingdao Jonoon xG
1.51
66%
Home win
4.59
22%
Draw
8.20
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
11%
8.99
Win to Nil
28%
3.63
1%
73.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.2 | 8.9 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.2 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Meizhou Kejia vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Meizhou Kejia and Qingdao Jonoon expected to score?
The model projects 2.20 expected goals for Meizhou Kejia and 0.88 for Qingdao Jonoon, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Meizhou Kejia vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Meizhou Kejia's recent record stands at 6W 4D 11L from 21 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Meizhou Kejia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Qingdao Jonoon, meanwhile, have gone 5W 4D 12L across 21 games — 0.90 PPG, with W-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Qingdao Jonoon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.05 PPG for Meizhou Kejia against 0.90 for Qingdao Jonoon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Meizhou Kejia have managed 5W 1D 4L from 10 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.05 PPG overall — Meizhou Kejia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Qingdao Jonoon's away record stands at 0W 2D 8L across 10 trips, a 0.20 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.90 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Qingdao Jonoon's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Meizhou Kejia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Meizhou Kejia are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.95 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Jonoon are on 1.19 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Meizhou Kejia have seen both teams score in 81% of their recent games.
Last 21 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Meizhou Kejia
Blended
Qingdao Jonoon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Qingdao Jonoon in coming into this match?
Meizhou Kejia have gone 6W 4D 11L in their last 21 games (1.05 PPG), while Qingdao Jonoon have gone 5W 4D 12L in their last 21 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Meizhou Kejia at home or Qingdao Jonoon away?
Meizhou Kejia's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Meizhou Kejia at home: 1.60 PPG; Qingdao Jonoon away: 0.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since May 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 4 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Meizhou Kejia have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Qingdao Jonoon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Meizhou Kejia
2
Draws
2
Qingdao Jonoon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Qingdao Jonoon?
From 6 meetings on record, Meizhou Kejia have won 2, Qingdao Jonoon have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Meizhou Kejia and Qingdao Jonoon last play each other?
They last met on 4 October 2025, when Meizhou Kejia 1-0 Qingdao Jonoon.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Qingdao Jonoon see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Meizhou Kejia, 50% for Qingdao Jonoon — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Meizhou Kejia) and 40% (Qingdao Jonoon). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Qingdao Jonoon in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Meizhou Kejia home games / Qingdao Jonoon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Meizhou Kejia play Qingdao Jonoon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Meizhou Kejia's games and 50% of Qingdao Jonoon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Meizhou Kejia vs Qingdao Jonoon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Meizhou Kejia's matches and 40% of Qingdao Jonoon's.
Do Meizhou Kejia and Qingdao Jonoon tend to score early?
Meizhou Kejia have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Qingdao Jonoon in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Meizhou Kejia edge out Qingdao Jonoon 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Meizhou Kejia beat Qingdao Jonoon 1-0 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Meizhou Kejia 2.20 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 0.88 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Meizhou Kejia fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Qingdao Jonoon landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Meizhou Kejia attack 1.30 / defence 1.07 against Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.66 / defence 1.09, drawn from 55/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Meizhou Kejia 66% | Draw 22% | Qingdao Jonoon 12%, with Meizhou Kejia to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Meizhou Kejia 71%, Qingdao Jonoon 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 81% of their matches — today it did not.
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Meizhou Kejia 1.05 PPG, Qingdao Jonoon 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Meizhou Kejia win broke the near-deadlock. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.