Dalian Aerbin 2-1 Shenzhen Ruby FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dalian Aerbin at 67% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dalian Aerbin vs Shenzhen Ruby FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shenzhen Ruby FC make the trip to Puwan Stadium to face Dalian Aerbin in Super League (matchday 22). The match kicks off on Sunday 13 August 2023 at 13:35 UK time.
Form
Dalian Aerbin (all games): 1W 6D 3L across their last 10 — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Dalian Aerbin have posted 2W 6D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's record over their last 10 games: 0W 1D 9L (0.10 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 3.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across their last 10 road games (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 3.10 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Dalian Aerbin. A 0.80 PPG lead over Shenzhen Ruby FC (0.90 vs 0.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Dalian Aerbin, 1 for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.7 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 13 May 2023, ended Dalian Aerbin 1–2 Shenzhen Ruby FC — a Shenzhen Ruby FC win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Dalian Aerbin half-time and goal-timing data (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Shenzhen Ruby FC half-time and goal-timing data (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Aerbin 61% versus Shenzhen Ruby FC 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalian Aerbin 54% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Aerbin 2.15 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.812 / defence 0.911 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.720 / defence 1.706. League average goals — home 1.552 / away 1.238. Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence rating of 1.706 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Dalian Aerbin's projected output up. Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack rating of 0.720 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.81. Data: built from Dalian Aerbin's last 55 games and Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 54.
Result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 67% | Draw 21% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 12%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Aerbin 1.49 | Draw 4.67 | Shenzhen Ruby FC 8.56. The model has a clear lean to Dalian Aerbin (67%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dalian Aerbin are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Dalian Aerbin's last 10 home games and Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Dalian Aerbin 70% (last 10 home games) | Shenzhen Ruby FC 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Aerbin vs Shenzhen Ruby FC | Competition: Super League, matchday 22 | Venue: Puwan Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 13 August 2023 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 67% | Draw 21% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Dalian Aerbin 2.15 / Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.812 / def 0.911 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.720 / def 1.706 | league avg home 1.552 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Dalian Aerbin (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
Dalian Aerbin xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
50%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Shenzhen Ruby FC FAQs
What time does Dalian Aerbin vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kick off?
Dalian Aerbin vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Sunday 13 August 2023 at Puwan Stadium.
What was the final score in Dalian Aerbin vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Dalian Aerbin 2 - 1 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Where is Dalian Aerbin vs Shenzhen Ruby FC being played?
The match is being played at Puwan Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Aerbin vs Shenzhen Ruby FC part of?
Dalian Aerbin vs Shenzhen Ruby FC is a Super League fixture (matchday 22) (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Aerbin vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Aerbin a 67% chance of winning, Shenzhen Ruby FC a 12% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Dalian Aerbin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Aerbin vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Dalian Aerbin and Shenzhen Ruby FC will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Dalian Aerbin vs Shenzhen Ruby FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Dalian Aerbin's attack at 0.81x the league average against Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence at 1.71x — combine the two and it projects 2.15 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack (0.72x) against Dalian Aerbin's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from Dalian Aerbin's last 55 games and Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dalian Aerbin Win
67%
1.49
21%
4.67
12%
8.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
Dalian Aerbin xG
Total xG
2.96
0.81
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
1.49
67%
Home win
4.67
21%
Draw
8.56
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
12%
8.58
Win to Nil
30%
3.37
1%
73.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.1 | 9.0 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Shenzhen Ruby FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Aerbin vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Dalian Aerbin and Shenzhen Ruby FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Dalian Aerbin and 0.81 for Shenzhen Ruby FC, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Aerbin vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dalian Aerbin's recent record stands at 15W 17D 22L from 54 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Shenzhen Ruby FC, meanwhile, have gone 12W 6D 36L across 54 games — 0.78 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Dalian Aerbin against 0.78 for Shenzhen Ruby FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Dalian Aerbin have managed 9W 11D 7L from their last 27 home games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's away record stands at 4W 4D 19L across their last 27 away games, a 0.59 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dalian Aerbin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dalian Aerbin are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Shenzhen Ruby FC are on 0.89 scored and 2.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dalian Aerbin have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
Dalian Aerbin (Home) vs Shenzhen Ruby FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Shenzhen Ruby FC Form FAQs
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Shenzhen Ruby FC in coming into this match?
Dalian Aerbin have gone 15W 17D 22L in their last 54 games (1.15 PPG), while Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 12W 6D 36L in their last 54 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dalian Aerbin at home or Shenzhen Ruby FC away?
Dalian Aerbin's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dalian Aerbin at home: 1.41 PPG; Shenzhen Ruby FC away: 0.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Dalian Aerbin and Shenzhen Ruby FC, the earliest from September 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 13 August 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dalian Aerbin won Dalian Aerbin 5-1 Shenzhen Ruby FC on 1 Sep 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dalian Aerbin have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Shenzhen Ruby FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Dalian Aerbin
0
Draws
1
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Shenzhen Ruby FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Dalian Aerbin have won 3, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Aerbin and Shenzhen Ruby FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 August 2023: Dalian Aerbin 2-1 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Who has won more matches between Dalian Aerbin and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Dalian Aerbin have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dalian Aerbin 70%, Shenzhen Ruby FC 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Dalian Aerbin) and 67% (Shenzhen Ruby FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shenzhen Ruby FC in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Aerbin home games / Shenzhen Ruby FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Shenzhen Ruby FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dalian Aerbin and Shenzhen Ruby FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Dalian Aerbin's games and 48% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Dalian Aerbin and Shenzhen Ruby FC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Dalian Aerbin's matches and 67% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's.
Do Dalian Aerbin and Shenzhen Ruby FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Dalian Aerbin's recent matches and 78% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dalian Aerbin edge out Shenzhen Ruby FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dalian Aerbin beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 2-1 at Puwan Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Aerbin 2.15 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.81 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Aerbin attack 0.81 / defence 0.91 against Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.72 / defence 1.71, drawn from 55/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Aerbin 67% | Draw 21% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 12%, with Dalian Aerbin to win its most likely call at 67%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalian Aerbin 54%, Shenzhen Ruby FC 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dalian Aerbin 1.15 PPG, Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dalian Aerbin win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.