St Patrick's Athl. 3-1 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Dundalk travel to Richmond Park to take on St Patrick's Athl.. The game is scheduled for Friday 22 September 2023, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
St Patrick's Athl. at Richmond Park this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Richmond Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dundalk stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Dundalk away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (St Patrick's Athl.) versus 1.70 (Dundalk). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for St Patrick's Athl., 0 for Dundalk and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Jun 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
St Patrick's Athl. trading profile (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Dundalk trading profile (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 48% versus Dundalk 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 55% | Dundalk 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.59 xG and Dundalk 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.168 / defence 0.780 | Dundalk attack 0.947 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.099. St Patrick's Athl.'s defence rating of 0.780 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 65 St Patrick's Athl. games / 65 Dundalk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 55% | Draw 26% | Dundalk 19%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | Dundalk 5.26. The model has a clear lean to St Patrick's Athl. (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: St Patrick's Athl. 30% | Dundalk 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Friday 22 Sep 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 55% | Draw 26% | Dundalk 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 45% | xG St Patrick's Athl. 1.59 / Dundalk 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.168 / def 0.780 | Dundalk attack 0.947 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Dundalk xG
45%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 22 September 2023 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk?
St Patrick's Athl. 3 - 1 Dundalk.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 55% chance of winning, Dundalk a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk will score (BTTS).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk?
Record (2 meetings): St Patrick's Athl. 1W | Draws 1 | Dundalk 0W.
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk in?
St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Dundalk (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates St Patrick's Athl.'s attack at 1.17x the league average against Dundalk's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dundalk's attack versus St Patrick's Athl.'s defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 2-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
55%
1.80
26%
3.88
19%
5.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
2.40
0.81
Dundalk xG
1.80
55%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
5.34
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
20%
4.90
Win to Nil
25%
4.06
4%
26.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 11.7 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.3 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 0.81 for Dundalk, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
St Patrick's Athl.'s recent record stands at 33W 12D 20L from 65 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-L in the last five.
Dundalk, meanwhile, have gone 29W 19D 17L across 65 games — 1.63 PPG, with L-D-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: St Patrick's Athl. on 1.71 PPG, Dundalk on 1.63. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, St Patrick's Athl. have managed 18W 6D 8L from 32 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dundalk's away record stands at 10W 9D 13L across 32 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.63 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dundalk's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St Patrick's Athl. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 1.40 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
Dundalk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk in coming into this match?
St Patrick's Athl. have gone 33W 12D 20L in their last 65 games (1.71 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 29W 19D 17L in their last 65 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St Patrick's Athl. at home or Dundalk away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St Patrick's Athl. at home: 1.88 PPG; Dundalk away: 1.22 PPG.
Have St Patrick's Athl. or Dundalk been keeping clean sheets recently?
St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Dundalk in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 24 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Feb 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St Patrick's Athl.'s record when hosting Dundalk specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
St Patrick's Athl.
3
Draws
2
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk?
From 10 meetings on record, St Patrick's Athl. have won 5, Dundalk have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk last play each other?
They last met on 24 July 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. 1-1 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Dundalk see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St Patrick's Athl. 38%, Dundalk 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (St Patrick's Athl.) and 38% (Dundalk).
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Dundalk in 31%; Dundalk in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St Patrick's Athl. play Dundalk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 41% of Dundalk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent games and 38% of Dundalk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk tend to score early?
St Patrick's Athl. have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Dundalk in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
St Patrick's Athl. cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Dundalk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Dundalk 3-1 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 31, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.59 xG and Dundalk 0.81 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. St Patrick's Athl. beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.17 / defence 0.78 against Dundalk attack 0.95 / defence 0.92, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 55% | Draw 26% | Dundalk 19%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 55%, Dundalk 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Dundalk's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St Patrick's Athl. 1.71 PPG, Dundalk 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St Patrick's Athl. win broke the near-deadlock. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.72 average — above their attacking norm. Dundalk (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.