Dundalk 1-3 Derry City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dundalk at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dundalk vs Derry City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Oriel Park plays host to Dundalk versus Derry City in Premier Division, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Friday 1 September 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dundalk have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Oriel Park, Dundalk have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Derry City's overall Premier Division record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Derry City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Derry City away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Dundalk, 1.30 for Derry City — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Dundalk 0W, Derry City 1W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2023, ended 0–3 with Derry City winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Dundalk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Derry City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 49% versus Derry City 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 49% | Derry City 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.50 xG and Derry City 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 1.163 / defence 0.983 | Derry City attack 1.103 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.082. Data: 64 Dundalk games / 63 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dundalk 45% | Draw 26% | Derry City 30%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Derry City 3.33. Dundalk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dundalk as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dundalk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dundalk 80% | Derry City 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Friday 1 Sep 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 45% | Draw 26% | Derry City 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Dundalk 1.50 / Derry City 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 1.163 / def 0.983 | Derry City attack 1.103 / def 0.900 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.082 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Derry City xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs Derry City kick off?
Dundalk vs Derry City kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 1 September 2023 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Derry City?
Dundalk 1 - 3 Derry City.
Where is Dundalk vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Derry City part of?
Dundalk vs Derry City is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 45% chance of winning, Derry City a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Dundalk and Derry City will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Derry City?
Record (2 meetings): Dundalk 0W | Draws 1 | Derry City 1W.
What form are Dundalk and Derry City in?
Dundalk (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Derry City (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Dundalk's attack rating (1.16) and Derry City's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Derry City's attack (1.10x) against Dundalk's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 64/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
45%
2.24
26%
3.91
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Dundalk xG
Total xG
2.67
1.17
Derry City xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
14%
7.23
7%
15.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.2 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Dundalk and 1.17 for Derry City, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 63 outings, Dundalk have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 29W 18D 16L record — W-L-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Derry City's form line: 31W 20D 12L from 63 games, 1.79 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-D. The sample for Derry City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.67 PPG for Dundalk against 1.79 for Derry City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Dundalk have posted 2.13 PPG from 31 outings (19W 9D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.67 PPG overall — Dundalk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Derry City have gone 16W 9D 6L from 31 away games — 1.84 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dundalk are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Derry City are on 1.44 scored and 0.76 conceded.
Defensively: Derry City in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Current Season
Derry City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dundalk and Derry City in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 29W 18D 16L in their last 63 games (1.67 PPG), while Derry City have gone 31W 20D 12L in their last 63 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or Derry City away?
Dundalk's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 2.13 PPG; Derry City away: 1.84 PPG.
Have Dundalk or Derry City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dundalk have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Derry City in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 29 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derry City won 3-0 on 15 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dundalk have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Derry City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Dundalk
5
Draws
4
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Derry City?
From 10 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 1, Derry City have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Derry City last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Dundalk 2-1 Derry City.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Derry City?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dundalk 58%, Derry City 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Dundalk) and 42% (Derry City).
On the defensive side: Dundalk keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Derry City in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dundalk play Derry City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Dundalk's recent matches and 52% of Derry City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dundalk vs Derry City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Dundalk's recent games and 42% of Derry City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dundalk and Derry City tend to score early?
Dundalk have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Derry City in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Derry City cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Dundalk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derry City beat Dundalk 1-3 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 1.50 xG and Derry City 1.17 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Derry City outscored their 1.17 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 1.16 / defence 0.98 against Derry City attack 1.10 / defence 0.90, drawn from 64/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 45% | Draw 26% | Derry City 30%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Derry City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 49%, Derry City 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Derry City's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dundalk 1.67 PPG, Derry City 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derry City win broke the near-deadlock. Dundalk (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Derry City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.