Dundalk 1-3 Derry City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dundalk at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Dundalk face Derry City.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Oriel Park plays host to Dundalk versus Derry City in Premier Division (matchday 29). Kick-off: Friday 1 September 2023 at 20:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Dundalk have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Dundalk have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Derry City's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Derry City away from home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Dundalk, 1.30 for Derry City — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Derry City edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 15 May 2023, ended Dundalk 0–3 Derry City — a Derry City win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Dundalk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 53%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Derry City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 49% versus Derry City 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 49% | Derry City 40%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Dundalk surrender their half-time lead 26% of the time, while Derry City have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Derry City surrender HT leads in 26% of cases while Dundalk recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 53% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.50 xG and Derry City 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 1.163 / defence 0.983 | Derry City attack 1.103 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.082. Data: built from Dundalk's last 64 games and Derry City's last 63.
Result probabilities: Dundalk 45% | Draw 26% | Derry City 30%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 2.24 | Draw 3.91 | Derry City 3.36. Dundalk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dundalk as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dundalk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Dundalk 80% (last 10 home games) | Derry City 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 29 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Friday 1 September 2023 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 45% | Draw 26% | Derry City 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Dundalk 1.50 / Derry City 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 1.163 / def 0.983 | Derry City attack 1.103 / def 0.900 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.082 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Derry City xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dundalk vs Derry City FAQs
What time does Dundalk vs Derry City kick off?
Dundalk vs Derry City kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Friday 1 September 2023 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Derry City?
Dundalk 1 - 3 Derry City.
Where is Dundalk vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Derry City part of?
Dundalk vs Derry City is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 29) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 45% chance of winning, Derry City a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Dundalk and Derry City will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Dundalk vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Dundalk's attack rating (1.16) and Derry City's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Derry City's attack (1.10x) against Dundalk's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from Dundalk's last 64 games and Derry City's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
45%
2.24
26%
3.91
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Dundalk xG
Total xG
2.67
1.17
Derry City xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
14%
7.23
7%
15.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.2 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dundalk vs Derry City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Dundalk and 1.17 for Derry City, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 63 outings, Dundalk have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 29W 18D 16L record — W-L-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Derry City's form line: 31W 20D 12L from 63 games, 1.79 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.67 PPG for Dundalk against 1.79 for Derry City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Dundalk have posted 2.13 PPG from their last 31 home games (19W 9D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.67 PPG overall — Dundalk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Derry City have gone 16W 9D 6L from their last 31 away games — 1.84 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dundalk are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Derry City are on 1.44 scored and 0.76 conceded.
Defensively: Derry City in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Current Season
Derry City
Blended
Dundalk (Home) vs Derry City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dundalk
Current Season
Derry City
Blended
❓ Dundalk vs Derry City Form FAQs
What form are Dundalk and Derry City in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 29W 18D 16L in their last 63 games (1.67 PPG), while Derry City have gone 31W 20D 12L in their last 63 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or Derry City away?
Dundalk's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 2.13 PPG; Derry City away: 1.84 PPG.
Have Dundalk or Derry City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dundalk have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Derry City in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 23 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derry City won Derry City 3-0 Dundalk on 15 May 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dundalk have gone 1W 2D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Derry City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Dundalk
4
Draws
5
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Dundalk vs Derry City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Derry City?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Dundalk have won 1, Derry City have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Derry City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 October 2026: Derry City 2-1 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Derry City?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 86% of those situations.
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dundalk 58%, Derry City 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Dundalk) and 42% (Derry City).
On the defensive side: Dundalk keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Derry City in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dundalk vs Derry City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dundalk and Derry City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Dundalk's recent matches and 52% of Derry City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Dundalk and Derry City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Dundalk's recent games and 42% of Derry City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dundalk and Derry City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Dundalk's recent matches and 74% of Derry City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Derry City cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Dundalk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derry City beat Dundalk 1-3 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 1.50 xG and Derry City 1.17 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Derry City outscored their 1.17 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 1.16 / defence 0.98 against Derry City attack 1.10 / defence 0.90, drawn from 64/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 45% | Draw 26% | Derry City 30%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Derry City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 49%, Derry City 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Derry City's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dundalk 1.67 PPG, Derry City 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derry City win broke the near-deadlock. Dundalk (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Derry City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.