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Under 2.5 Goals Predictions

Fixtures ranked by highest under 2.5 probability — Sunday 3 March 2024

Thu 29 Fri 1 Sat 2 Sun 3 Mon 4 Tue 5 Wed 6

Under 2.5 goals lands when a match produces 2 goals or fewer. Our prediction model sums the probability of every scoreline with 2 goals or fewer — 0–0, 1–0, 1–1, 2–0 and their mirror images. Only fixtures with 55%+ probability are shown.

20 fixtures cleared the bar on Sunday 3 March 2024. Modena vs Cremonese sits top on 72% in the Serie B. The shortlist runs from 72% down to 58%, so the tail is materially weaker than the top.

The shortlist spans seven different competitions, so there is no single league driving the day.

Of the 20 fixtures on this list that have since finished, twelve landed the under 2.5 goals market — 60%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.

Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Serie B · Italy 72%

✓ Under 2.5 72% ✓ BTTS No 62%

Premier League · Russia 68%

✓ Under 2.5 68% BTTS No 61%

Ligue 1 · France 67%

Under 2.5 67% BTTS No 58%

Bundesliga · Austria 66%

✓ Under 2.5 66% ✓ BTTS No 58%

Challenger Pro League · Belgium 65%

Under 2.5 65% ✓ BTTS No 63%

Ligue 1 · France 65%

Under 2.5 65% ✓ BTTS No 56%

Primeira Liga · Portugal 64%

✓ Under 2.5 64% ✓ BTTS No 57%

Bundesliga · Austria 64%

Under 2.5 64% ✓ BTTS No 57%

K League 1 · South-Korea 64%

✓ Under 2.5 64% ✓ BTTS No 58%

#10

Serie B · Italy 63%

✓ Under 2.5 63% ✓ BTTS No 55%

#11

Ligue 1 · France 62%

✓ Under 2.5 62% ✓ BTTS No 54%

#12

Premier League · Russia 61%

#13

Primeira Liga · Portugal 61%

Under 2.5 61% ✓ BTTS No 54%

#14

Süper Lig · Turkey 61%

✓ Under 2.5 61% ✓ BTTS No 53%

#15

Premier League · Ukraine 60%

Under 2.5 60% BTTS No 54%

#16

Ligue 1 · France 60%

Under 2.5 60% BTTS No 53%

#17

Bundesliga · Austria 60%

Under 2.5 60% BTTS No 53%

#18

Serie A · Italy 60%

✓ Under 2.5 60% ✓ BTTS No 55%

#19

Super League 1 · Greece 59%

#20

Premier League · Ukraine 58%

✓ Under 2.5 58% ✓ BTTS No 55%

Showing top 20 fixtures by under 2.5 probability (a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.

Related markets

Low Scoring Both Teams to Score – No Over 2.5 Goals

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Under 2.5 Goals — common questions

What does the Under 2.5 Goals market mean?

Under 2.5 Goals settles on whether a match finishes with 2 or fewer total goals. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.

How does Fixture360 calculate under 2.5 goals probability?

Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The under 2.5 probability shown here is the probability of 2 or fewer total goals, summed across every scoreline in the model's matrix. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.

How many fixtures qualified for Under 2.5 Goals on Sunday 3 March 2024?

20 fixtures met the criteria, led by Modena vs Cremonese at 72% under 2.5 probability.

Which fixtures appear on this page?

Fixtures with a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.

How accurate are these under 2.5 goals predictions?

Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.

Are these predictions betting tips?

No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.