Obolon'-Brovar 0-1 Dnipro-1 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dnipro-1 at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Obolon'-Brovar vs Dnipro-1 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Obolon'-Brovar host Dnipro-1 at Obolon Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 3 March 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Obolon'-Brovar stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Obolon'-Brovar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Obolon'-Brovar's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 3L across 8 games at Obolon Arena this term (0.88 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Obolon Arena.
Dnipro-1 — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dnipro-1, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dnipro-1's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Dnipro-1 are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Obolon'-Brovar, 0 for Dnipro-1 and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2023, ended 2–1 with Obolon'-Brovar winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Obolon'-Brovar in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 59% of games.
Dnipro-1 in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Obolon'-Brovar 29% versus Dnipro-1 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Obolon'-Brovar 29% | Dnipro-1 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Obolon'-Brovar 0.83 xG and Dnipro-1 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.798 / defence 1.097 | Dnipro-1 attack 1.113 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.064 / away 1.249. Obolon'-Brovar's attack strength of 0.798 is below the league average — the 0.83 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 17 Obolon'-Brovar games / 48 Dnipro-1 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 19% | Draw 28% | Dnipro-1 53%. Fair-value odds: Obolon'-Brovar 5.26 | Draw 3.57 | Dnipro-1 1.89. Dnipro-1 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dnipro-1 are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dnipro-1 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Obolon'-Brovar 38% | Dnipro-1 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Obolon'-Brovar vs Dnipro-1 | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Obolon Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Mar 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 19% | Draw 28% | Dnipro-1 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 45% | xG Obolon'-Brovar 0.83 / Dnipro-1 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.798 / def 1.097 | Dnipro-1 attack 1.113 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.064 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: Dnipro-1 (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Obolon'-Brovar xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Dnipro-1 xG
45%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Obolon'-Brovar vs Dnipro-1 kick off?
Obolon'-Brovar vs Dnipro-1 kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 3 March 2024 at Obolon Arena.
What was the final score in Obolon'-Brovar vs Dnipro-1?
Obolon'-Brovar 0 - 1 Dnipro-1.
Where is Obolon'-Brovar vs Dnipro-1 being played?
The match is being played at Obolon Arena.
What competition is Obolon'-Brovar vs Dnipro-1 part of?
Obolon'-Brovar vs Dnipro-1 is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Obolon'-Brovar vs Dnipro-1?
Our statistical model gives Obolon'-Brovar a 19% chance of winning, Dnipro-1 a 53% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Dnipro-1 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Obolon'-Brovar vs Dnipro-1?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Obolon'-Brovar and Dnipro-1 will score (BTTS).
Will Obolon'-Brovar vs Dnipro-1 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Obolon'-Brovar and Dnipro-1?
Record (1 meetings): Obolon'-Brovar 1W | Draws 0 | Dnipro-1 0W.
What form are Obolon'-Brovar and Dnipro-1 in?
Obolon'-Brovar (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-L-D. Dnipro-1 (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Obolon'-Brovar's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Dnipro-1's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.83. The same calculation in reverse, Dnipro-1's attack versus Obolon'-Brovar's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.9%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dnipro-1 Win
19%
5.19
28%
3.55
53%
1.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Obolon'-Brovar xG
Total xG
2.35
1.52
Dnipro-1 xG
5.19
19%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
1.90
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
22%
4.60
44%
2.29
Win to Nil
4%
23.85
23%
4.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 14.5 | 11.0 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.0 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Obolon'-Brovar vs Dnipro-1?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Obolon'-Brovar and Dnipro-1 expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Obolon'-Brovar and 1.52 for Dnipro-1, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Obolon'-Brovar vs Dnipro-1?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Obolon'-Brovar come into this having played 17 games, going 3W 6D 8L for 0.88 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-D. The sample for Obolon'-Brovar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dnipro-1 sit at 1.88 PPG from 17 outings (9W 5D 3L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Dnipro-1 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dnipro-1 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Obolon'-Brovar — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Obolon'-Brovar's home form reads 1W 4D 3L across 8 games on their own ground, a 0.88 PPG return.
Away from home, Dnipro-1 have taken 2.12 points per game from 8 outings (5W 2D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dnipro-1 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Obolon'-Brovar are averaging 0.65 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Dnipro-1 are on 1.47 scored and 0.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Obolon'-Brovar have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Defensively: Obolon'-Brovar have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Dnipro-1 in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Obolon'-Brovar
Blended
Dnipro-1
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Obolon'-Brovar and Dnipro-1 in coming into this match?
Obolon'-Brovar have gone 3W 6D 8L in their last 17 games (0.88 PPG), while Dnipro-1 have gone 9W 5D 3L in their last 17 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Obolon'-Brovar at home or Dnipro-1 away?
Dnipro-1's away record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Obolon'-Brovar at home: 0.88 PPG; Dnipro-1 away: 2.12 PPG.
Have Obolon'-Brovar or Dnipro-1 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Obolon'-Brovar have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Dnipro-1 in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Obolon'-Brovar and Dnipro-1 runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Obolon'-Brovar
0
Draws
1
Dnipro-1
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Obolon'-Brovar and Dnipro-1?
From 2 meetings on record, Obolon'-Brovar have won 1, Dnipro-1 have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Obolon'-Brovar and Dnipro-1 last play each other?
They last met on 3 March 2024, when Obolon'-Brovar 0-1 Dnipro-1.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Obolon'-Brovar see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Obolon'-Brovar 38%, Dnipro-1 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Obolon'-Brovar and 38% for Dnipro-1.
On the defensive side: Obolon'-Brovar keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Dnipro-1 in 38%; Obolon'-Brovar have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Obolon'-Brovar home games / Dnipro-1 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Obolon'-Brovar play Dnipro-1?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent matches and 50% of Dnipro-1's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Obolon'-Brovar vs Dnipro-1 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent games and 38% of Dnipro-1's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Obolon'-Brovar and Dnipro-1 tend to score early?
Obolon'-Brovar have had a goal before half-time in 38% of their recent matches, Dnipro-1 in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dnipro-1 edge out Obolon'-Brovar 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dnipro-1 beat Obolon'-Brovar 0-1 at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Obolon'-Brovar 0.83 xG and Dnipro-1 1.52 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Obolon'-Brovar fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.80 / defence 1.10 against Dnipro-1 attack 1.11 / defence 0.98, drawn from 17/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Obolon'-Brovar 19% | Draw 28% | Dnipro-1 53%, with Dnipro-1 to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Obolon'-Brovar 29%, Dnipro-1 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 59% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dnipro-1's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Dnipro-1 arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 0.88. Form held, and they took the win. Dnipro-1 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.