Daegu FC 0-1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Daegu FC at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Gimcheon Sangmu FC travel to DGB Daegu Bank Park to take on Daegu FC in K League 1 (matchday 1). The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 March 2024 at 05:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Daegu FC have gone 4W 3D 3L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Daegu FC at home: 3W 6D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Gimcheon Sangmu FC stand at 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC away from home: 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Daegu FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Daegu FC, 0 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Scoring has been limited in the 4 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.2 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 16 Oct 2022, ended Daegu FC 1–1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Daegu FC trading profile (last 40 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Gimcheon Sangmu FC trading profile (last 40 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daegu FC 52% versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daegu FC 38% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 48%). Note also that Gimcheon Sangmu FC surrender HT leads in 54% of cases while Daegu FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.35 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 0.982 / defence 0.972 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.193 / away 0.973. Data: built from Daegu FC's last 33 games and Gimcheon Sangmu FC's last 0. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 49% | Draw 30% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 22%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 2.05 | Draw 3.38 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 4.64. Daegu FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Daegu FC at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Daegu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 64% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Daegu FC's last 10 home games and Gimcheon Sangmu FC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Daegu FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
The Poisson model's sample (Daegu FC 33 games, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Competition: K League 1, matchday 1 | Venue: DGB Daegu Bank Park • Kick-off: Sunday 3 March 2024 at 05:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 49% | Draw 30% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Daegu FC 1.35 / Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 0.982 / def 0.972 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.193 / away 0.973 • Poisson stance: Daegu FC (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC FAQs
What time does Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kick off?
Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kicked off at 05:00 UK time on Sunday 3 March 2024 at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Daegu FC 0 - 1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Where is Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC being played?
The match is being played at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC part of?
Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 1) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 49% chance of winning, Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Daegu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Daegu FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Daegu FC's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. The same calculation in reverse, Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack versus Daegu FC's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Daegu FC's last 33 games and Gimcheon Sangmu FC's last 0, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.0%), 0-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
49%
2.05
30%
3.38
22%
4.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
2.15
0.80
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
4.64
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
22%
4.58
6%
17.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 9.3 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 12.6 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.6 | 8.5 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Daegu FC and 0.80 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 40 outings, Daegu FC have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 13W 16D 11L record — L-L-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's form line: 8W 14D 18L from 40 games, 0.95 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Daegu FC are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Daegu FC have posted 1.55 PPG from their last 20 home games (7W 10D 3L).
On the road, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 3W 9D 8L from their last 20 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Daegu FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Daegu FC are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Gimcheon Sangmu FC are on 1.15 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 60%.
Last 40 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Current Season
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Pre-Season
Daegu FC (Home) vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Daegu FC
Current Season
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Pre-Season
❓ Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC Form FAQs
What form are Daegu FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in coming into this match?
Daegu FC have gone 13W 16D 11L in their last 40 games (1.38 PPG), while Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 8W 14D 18L in their last 40 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daegu FC at home or Gimcheon Sangmu FC away?
Daegu FC's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daegu FC at home: 1.55 PPG; Gimcheon Sangmu FC away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Daegu FC or Gimcheon Sangmu FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Daegu FC have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2022. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent in our data was on 14 September 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 Aug 2024, when Daegu FC won Daegu FC 3-0 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Daegu FC's record when hosting Gimcheon Sangmu FC specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Daegu FC
3
Draws
4
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Daegu FC have won 3, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 September 2025: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-2 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daegu FC 55%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Daegu FC) and 50% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Gimcheon Sangmu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Daegu FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Daegu FC's games and 65% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Daegu FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Daegu FC's recent games and 50% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Daegu FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Daegu FC's recent matches and 80% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gimcheon Sangmu FC defy the odds to beat Daegu FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat Daegu FC 0-1 at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Regular Season - 1, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.35 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.80 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Daegu FC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 0.98 / defence 0.97 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 33/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 49% | Draw 30% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 22%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Gimcheon Sangmu FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 38%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daegu FC's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Daegu FC arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.95. Form was overturned, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Daegu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.