Toulouse 2-1 Nice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Toulouse at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Toulouse vs Nice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Nice make the trip to Stadium de Toulouse to face Toulouse in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Sunday 3 March 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Toulouse have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Toulouse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Toulouse's home record at Stadium de Toulouse: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Nice (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Nice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nice's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Toulouse, 1.10 for Nice — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Toulouse 0W, Nice 1W, 2D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2023, ended 0–1 with Nice winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Toulouse goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Nice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 57% versus Nice 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 56% | Nice 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.12 xG and Nice 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 0.971 / defence 1.116 | Nice attack 0.689 / defence 0.856. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.159. Data: 61 Toulouse games / 61 Nice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Toulouse 39% | Draw 34% | Nice 27%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 2.56 | Draw 2.94 | Nice 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Toulouse at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Toulouse if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.01 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Toulouse 70% | Nice 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Nice | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Mar 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 39% | Draw 34% | Nice 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG Toulouse 1.12 / Nice 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 0.971 / def 1.116 | Nice attack 0.689 / def 0.856 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Nice xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Toulouse vs Nice kick off?
Toulouse vs Nice kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 3 March 2024 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Nice?
Toulouse 2 - 1 Nice.
Where is Toulouse vs Nice being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Nice part of?
Toulouse vs Nice is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Nice?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 39% chance of winning, Nice a 27% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Nice?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Toulouse and Nice will score (BTTS).
Will Toulouse vs Nice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Nice?
Record (3 meetings): Toulouse 0W | Draws 2 | Nice 1W.
What form are Toulouse and Nice in?
Toulouse (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Nice (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Toulouse's attack rating (0.97) and Nice's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Nice's attack (0.69x) against Toulouse's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
39%
2.58
34%
2.90
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Toulouse xG
Total xG
2.01
0.89
Nice xG
2.58
39%
Home win
2.90
34%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
16%
6.28
9%
11.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 11.9 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Nice?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Nice expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Toulouse and 0.89 for Nice, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Nice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Toulouse's recent record stands at 19W 17D 25L from 61 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Toulouse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nice, meanwhile, have gone 26W 20D 15L across 61 games — 1.61 PPG, with W-D-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Nice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Nice by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Toulouse heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Toulouse have managed 8W 11D 11L from 30 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nice's away record stands at 12W 9D 9L across 30 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Toulouse are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Nice are on 1.15 scored and 0.85 conceded.
Defensively: Nice in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Blended
Nice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Toulouse and Nice in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 19W 17D 25L in their last 61 games (1.21 PPG), while Nice have gone 26W 20D 15L in their last 61 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Nice away?
Nice's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 1.17 PPG; Nice away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Toulouse or Nice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Nice in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Toulouse have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Toulouse won 5-1 on 17 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Toulouse have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Nice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Toulouse
4
Draws
1
Nice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Nice?
From 8 meetings on record, Toulouse have won 3, Nice have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Nice last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Toulouse 5-1 Nice.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Nice?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 63%, Nice 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Toulouse) and 33% (Nice).
On the defensive side: Nice in 33%; Toulouse have failed to score in 27% of games; Nice in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Nice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Toulouse play Nice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Toulouse's games and 47% of Nice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Toulouse vs Nice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Toulouse's recent games and 33% of Nice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Toulouse and Nice tend to score early?
Toulouse have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Nice in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Toulouse edge out Nice 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse beat Nice 2-1 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.12 xG and Nice 0.89 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Toulouse beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 0.97 / defence 1.12 against Nice attack 0.69 / defence 0.86, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 39% | Draw 34% | Nice 27%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 56%, Nice 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Nice's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Nice arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.21. Form was overturned, with Toulouse winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Nice (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.