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Under 2.5 Goals Predictions

Fixtures ranked by highest under 2.5 probability — Saturday 11 December 2021

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Under 2.5 goals lands when a match produces 2 goals or fewer. Our prediction model sums the probability of every scoreline with 2 goals or fewer — 0–0, 1–0, 1–1, 2–0 and their mirror images. Only fixtures with 55%+ probability are shown.

The model shortlists 20 fixtures on Saturday 11 December 2021. Alaves vs Getafe led the list at 81% in the La Liga. The shortlist runs from 81% down to 64%, which is a meaningful spread across a single day.

Ligue 2 supplies three of the top 10, which is worth noting if you are spreading selections across leagues.

Of the 20 fixtures on this list that have since finished, eleven landed the under 2.5 goals market — 55%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.

Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

La Liga · Spain 81%

✓ Under 2.5 81% BTTS No 72%

Ligue 2 · France 80%

✓ Under 2.5 80% ✓ BTTS No 71%

Ligue 2 · France 78%

Under 2.5 78% BTTS No 70%

Ligue 2 · France 75%

Under 2.5 75% BTTS No 70% Amiens Clean Sheet 57%

Championship · England 71%

Under 2.5 71% BTTS No 61%

Bundesliga · Germany 71%

✓ Under 2.5 71% ✓ BTTS No 60%

Serie B · Italy 70%

✓ Under 2.5 70% ✓ BTTS No 61%

La Liga · Spain 69%

✓ Under 2.5 69% ✓ BTTS No 61%

League Two · England 69%

Under 2.5 69% ✓ BTTS No 59%

#10

Premier League · Ukraine 69%

✓ Under 2.5 69% BTTS No 62%

#11

Süper Lig · Turkey 68%

Under 2.5 68% BTTS No 64%

#12

Ligue 2 · France 67%

✓ Under 2.5 67% ✓ BTTS No 60%

#13

League One · England 67%

✓ Under 2.5 67% ✓ BTTS No 60%

#14

Allsvenskan · Sweden 66%

✓ Under 2.5 66% ✓ BTTS No 60%

#15

League Two · England 66%

✓ Under 2.5 66% ✓ BTTS No 58%

#16

Premier League · Ukraine 66%

Under 2.5 66% BTTS No 60%

#17

Ligue 2 · France 65%

✓ Under 2.5 65% ✓ BTTS No 58%

#18

Championship · England 64%

Under 2.5 64% BTTS No 60%

#19

Ligue 2 · France 64%

Under 2.5 64% BTTS No 60%

#20

2. Bundesliga · Germany 64%

Showing top 20 fixtures by under 2.5 probability (a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.

Related markets

Low Scoring Both Teams to Score – No Over 2.5 Goals

Predictions by country

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Under 2.5 Goals — common questions

What does the Under 2.5 Goals market mean?

Under 2.5 Goals settles on whether a match finishes with 2 or fewer total goals. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.

How does Fixture360 calculate under 2.5 goals probability?

Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The under 2.5 probability shown here is the probability of 2 or fewer total goals, summed across every scoreline in the model's matrix. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.

How many fixtures qualified for Under 2.5 Goals on Saturday 11 December 2021?

20 fixtures met the criteria, led by Alaves vs Getafe at 81% under 2.5 probability.

Which fixtures appear on this page?

Fixtures with a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.

How accurate are these under 2.5 goals predictions?

Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.

Are these predictions betting tips?

No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.