Stevenage 0-2 Carlisle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stevenage at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stevenage vs Carlisle fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stevenage host Carlisle at The Lamex Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 December 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Stevenage — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stevenage's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at The Lamex Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Carlisle stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 League Two matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Carlisle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Carlisle away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Stevenage 1.00 PPG, Carlisle 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Stevenage in-play and half-time data (19 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Carlisle in-play and half-time data (19 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 42% versus Carlisle 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 47% | Carlisle 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.26 xG and Carlisle 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.792 / defence 1.114 | Carlisle attack 0.625 / defence 1.502. League average goals — home 1.058 / away 1.164. Stevenage's attack strength of 0.792 is below the league average — the 1.26 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Carlisle bring a strong defensive rating of 1.502 — this is suppressing Stevenage's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Stevenage games / 20 Carlisle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 44% | Draw 35% | Carlisle 21%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 2.27 | Draw 2.86 | Carlisle 4.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stevenage at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stevenage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.07 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Stevenage 50% | Carlisle 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Carlisle | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: The Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Dec 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 44% | Draw 35% | Carlisle 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Stevenage 1.26 / Carlisle 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.792 / def 1.114 | Carlisle attack 0.625 / def 1.502 | league avg home 1.058 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Carlisle xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Carlisle kick off?
Stevenage vs Carlisle kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 December 2021 at The Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Carlisle?
Stevenage 0 - 2 Carlisle.
Where is Stevenage vs Carlisle being played?
The match is being played at The Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Carlisle part of?
Stevenage vs Carlisle is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Carlisle?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 44% chance of winning, Carlisle a 21% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Carlisle?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Stevenage and Carlisle will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Carlisle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Carlisle?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stevenage and Carlisle in?
Stevenage (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Carlisle (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Stevenage's attack rating (0.79) and Carlisle's defence rating (1.50), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Carlisle's attack versus Stevenage's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
44%
2.26
35%
2.89
21%
4.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.07
0.81
Carlisle xG
2.26
44%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
4.71
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
28%
3.52
Win to Nil
20%
5.09
6%
16.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 10.2 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 12.9 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Carlisle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Carlisle expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Stevenage and 0.81 for Carlisle, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Carlisle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stevenage's recent record stands at 4W 7D 8L from 19 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Carlisle, meanwhile, have gone 3W 6D 10L across 19 games — 0.79 PPG, with D-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Carlisle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stevenage on 1.00 PPG, Carlisle on 0.79. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Stevenage have managed 3W 5D 2L from 10 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Carlisle's away record stands at 1W 2D 7L across 10 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stevenage are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Carlisle are on 0.68 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 19 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Blended
Carlisle
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Carlisle in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 4W 7D 8L in their last 19 games (1.00 PPG), while Carlisle have gone 3W 6D 10L in their last 19 (0.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Carlisle away?
Stevenage's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.40 PPG; Carlisle away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Carlisle been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Carlisle in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Stevenage's record when hosting Carlisle specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Stevenage
3
Draws
2
Carlisle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Carlisle?
From 6 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 1, Carlisle have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Carlisle last play each other?
They last met on 23 March 2024, when Carlisle 2-2 Stevenage.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and Carlisle?
Carlisle have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Carlisle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 50%, Carlisle 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Stevenage) and 80% (Carlisle). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Carlisle in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Carlisle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Carlisle?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Stevenage's recent matches and 50% of Carlisle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Carlisle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 30% of Stevenage's matches and 80% of Carlisle's.
Do Stevenage and Carlisle tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Carlisle in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Carlisle cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Stevenage.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Carlisle beat Stevenage 0-2 at The Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.26 xG and Carlisle 0.81 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Stevenage fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Carlisle outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.79 / defence 1.11 against Carlisle attack 0.62 / defence 1.50, drawn from 19/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 44% | Draw 35% | Carlisle 21%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Carlisle win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 47%, Carlisle 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (19 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Carlisle's trading profile (19 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stevenage 1.00 PPG, Carlisle 0.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Carlisle win broke the near-deadlock. Stevenage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Carlisle (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.70 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.