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Tightly Contested Predictions

Most evenly matched fixtures by predicted outcome probabilities β€” Sunday 4 January 2026

These fixtures have the smallest gap between home and away win probability β€” meaning neither team has a significant edge. Our prediction model scores each fixture by how evenly the outcome probabilities are spread across all three results. Fixtures at the top are closest to a perfect 33% / 33% / 33% split, making them prime candidates for the draw and double-chance markets.

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

#1 Championship Β· England
Derby
1 : 2 FT
Wrexham
Win 36%
Draw 32%
Win 33%
Under 2.5 67% BTTS No 59%
#2 League One Β· England
Reading
1 : 0 FT
Stockport County
Win 34%
Draw 28%
Win 37%
✓ Under 2.5 60% ✓ BTTS No 53%
#3 Championship Β· England
Norwich
0 : 2 FT
Stoke City
Win 36%
Draw 33%
Win 32%
✓ Under 2.5 69% ✓ BTTS No 61%
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Showing top 20 most evenly matched fixtures (draw probability β‰₯ 22%). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.