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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model favours Buriram United (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Prachuap face Buriram United.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 18 as Prachuap welcome Buriram United to Sam Ao Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 4 January 2026 at 11:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Prachuap have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Prachuap have posted 4W 4D 2L at Sam Ao Stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Buriram United stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Buriram United, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Buriram United have posted 8W 0D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form points away from home here. Buriram United's 2.50 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Prachuap's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H Record

Buriram United have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 8 of the last 9 encounters against Prachuap's 1 victories.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2025, ended 0–2 with Buriram United winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Buriram United have won 8 of 9 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Data

Prachuap trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Buriram United trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 51% versus Buriram United 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 49% | Buriram United 71%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.40 xG and Buriram United 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 1.012 / defence 1.027 | Buriram United attack 1.431 / defence 0.904. League average goals — home 1.531 / away 1.225. Buriram United have an above-average attack strength of 1.431 — the away xG of 1.80 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 45 Prachuap games / 45 Buriram United games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Prachuap 28% | Draw 26% | Buriram United 45%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 3.57 | Draw 3.85 | Buriram United 2.22. Buriram United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.40 / 1.80) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Buriram United at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Buriram United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.20 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Prachuap 50% | Buriram United 80% BTTS from recent games.

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