Low Scoring Predictions
Fixtures ranked by lowest predicted expected total goals — Sunday 17 September 2023
Our prediction model identifies fixtures where both teams have historically weak attack or strong defence. Fixtures at the top of this list have the lowest combined expected goals (xG) — making them the best candidates for Under 2.5 goals and low-scoring correct score markets.
20 matches cleared our threshold on Sunday 17 September 2023. Warta Poznań vs Lech Poznan led the list at 2.35 in the Ekstraklasa. The shortlist runs from 2.35 down to 1.79, so the tail is materially weaker than the top.
The shortlist spans nine different competitions, a broad spread rather than one division dominating.
Of the 20 fixtures on this list that have since finished, twelve landed the low scoring market — 60%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.
Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
2. Bundesliga · Germany
Serie A · Brazil
La Liga · Spain
Premier League · Ukraine
Premier League · Ukraine
Veikkausliiga · Finland
Süper Lig · Turkey
K League 1 · South-Korea
Premier League · England
Superettan · Sweden
La Liga · Spain
Super League 1 · Greece
Ekstraklasa · Poland
Super League · China
Serie A · Italy
Canadian Premier League · Canada
Bundesliga · Austria
Jupiler Pro League · Belgium
Eliteserien · Norway
Ekstraklasa · Poland
Showing top 20 fixtures by lowest combined expected goals. Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.
Related markets
Low Scoring — common questions
What does the Low Scoring market mean?
Low Scoring settles on whether a match is expected to stay tight, typically under 2.5 goals. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.
How does Fixture360 calculate low scoring probability?
Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The combined expected goals shown here is the sum of both teams' expected goals, ranked ascending so the tightest games surface first. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.
How many fixtures qualified for Low Scoring on Sunday 17 September 2023?
20 fixtures met the criteria, led by Warta Poznań vs Lech Poznan at 2.35 combined expected goals.
Which fixtures appear on this page?
Fixtures with the lowest combined expected goals of the day, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.
How accurate are these low scoring predictions?
Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.
Are these predictions betting tips?
No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.