Everton 0-1 Arsenal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Arsenal at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Everton vs Arsenal encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Everton host Arsenal at Goodison Park in Premier League, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 17 September 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Everton — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Everton have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Everton's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at Goodison Park this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Premier League games this season, Arsenal have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Arsenal have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Arsenal away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Arsenal — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Everton have won 2, Arsenal 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2023, ended 0–4 with Arsenal winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Everton in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at home): BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Arsenal in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at away): BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 45% versus Arsenal 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 43% | Arsenal 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 0.79 xG and Arsenal 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.630 / defence 0.985 | Arsenal attack 1.016 / defence 0.785. League average goals — home 1.601 / away 1.401. Everton's attack strength of 0.630 is below the league average — the 0.79 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Arsenal's defence strength of 0.785 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 42 Everton games / 42 Arsenal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton 21% | Draw 27% | Arsenal 51%. Fair-value odds: Everton 4.76 | Draw 3.70 | Arsenal 1.96. Arsenal hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Arsenal are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Arsenal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Everton 30% | Arsenal 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Arsenal | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Goodison Park • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Sep 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 21% | Draw 27% | Arsenal 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 41% | xG Everton 0.79 / Arsenal 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 0.630 / def 0.985 | Arsenal attack 1.016 / def 0.785 | league avg home 1.601 / away 1.401 • Poisson stance: Arsenal (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Everton xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Arsenal xG
41%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton vs Arsenal kick off?
Everton vs Arsenal kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 17 September 2023 at Goodison Park.
What was the final score in Everton vs Arsenal?
Everton 0 - 1 Arsenal.
Where is Everton vs Arsenal being played?
The match is being played at Goodison Park.
What competition is Everton vs Arsenal part of?
Everton vs Arsenal is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Arsenal?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 21% chance of winning, Arsenal a 51% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Arsenal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Arsenal?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Everton and Arsenal will score (BTTS).
Will Everton vs Arsenal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Arsenal?
Record (4 meetings): Everton 2W | Draws 0 | Arsenal 2W.
What form are Everton and Arsenal in?
Everton (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Arsenal (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Everton's attacking strength (0.63x league average) is weighed against Arsenal's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.79. The same calculation in reverse, Arsenal's attack versus Everton's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.0%), 0-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arsenal Win
21%
4.73
27%
3.65
51%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Everton xG
Total xG
2.19
1.40
Arsenal xG
4.73
21%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
1.94
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
25%
4.07
45%
2.21
Win to Nil
5%
19.23
23%
4.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 15.6 | 11.0 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.4 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Arsenal?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Everton and Arsenal expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Everton and 1.40 for Arsenal, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Arsenal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Everton's recent record stands at 8W 13D 21L from 42 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Everton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Arsenal, meanwhile, have gone 29W 7D 6L across 42 games — 2.24 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Arsenal, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Arsenal by 1.36 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Everton heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Everton have managed 6W 3D 11L from 20 games — 1.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Arsenal's away record stands at 13W 3D 4L across 20 trips, a 2.10 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Arsenal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Everton are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Arsenal are on 2.29 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Arsenal in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Early Season
Arsenal
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton and Arsenal in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 8W 13D 21L in their last 42 games (0.88 PPG), while Arsenal have gone 29W 7D 6L in their last 42 (2.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Arsenal away?
Arsenal's away record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.05 PPG; Arsenal away: 2.10 PPG.
Have Everton or Arsenal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Arsenal in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Everton and Arsenal runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Arsenal go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 May 2022, when Arsenal won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Everton's record when hosting Arsenal specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Everton
2
Draws
6
Arsenal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Arsenal?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton have won 2, Arsenal have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Arsenal last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Arsenal 2-0 Everton.
Who has won more matches between Everton and Arsenal?
Arsenal have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 40%, Arsenal 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Everton) and 45% (Arsenal).
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Arsenal in 55%; Everton have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Arsenal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton play Arsenal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Everton's recent matches and 35% of Arsenal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton vs Arsenal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Everton's recent games and 45% of Arsenal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Arsenal edge out Everton 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arsenal beat Everton 0-1 at Goodison Park, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 0.79 xG and Arsenal 1.40 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.63 / defence 0.98 against Arsenal attack 1.02 / defence 0.79, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton 21% | Draw 27% | Arsenal 51%, with Arsenal to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 43%, Arsenal 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Arsenal's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Arsenal arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 0.88. That form edge translated into the three points. Everton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Arsenal (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.