Getafe 3-2 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Getafe at 35% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Getafe face Osasuna.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Getafe host Osasuna at Estadio Coliseum in La Liga (matchday 5). Kick-off is Sunday 17 September 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Getafe have gone 4W 3D 3L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Getafe's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Getafe are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Osasuna stand at 5W 0D 5L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Osasuna have posted 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Getafe) versus 1.50 (Osasuna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Getafe, 0 for Osasuna and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 May 2023, ended Getafe 2–1 Osasuna — a Getafe win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Getafe in-play tendencies (last 42 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Osasuna in-play tendencies (last 42 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Getafe 43% versus Osasuna 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Getafe 38% | Osasuna 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Getafe 0.99 xG and Osasuna 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Getafe attack 0.805 / defence 0.758 | Osasuna attack 1.103 / defence 0.840. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.156. Getafe have a tight defence (rating 0.758), which is pulling Osasuna's projected output down. Data: built from Getafe's last 42 games and Osasuna's last 42.
Result probabilities: Getafe 35% | Draw 31% | Osasuna 34%. Fair-value odds: Getafe 2.86 | Draw 3.19 | Osasuna 2.96. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Getafe are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Getafe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.95 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Getafe's last 10 home games and Osasuna's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Getafe 40% (last 10 home games) | Osasuna 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Getafe vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, matchday 5 | Venue: Estadio Coliseum • Kick-off: Sunday 17 September 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Getafe 35% | Draw 31% | Osasuna 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% (Under 69%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Getafe 0.99 / Osasuna 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Getafe attack 0.805 / def 0.758 | Osasuna attack 1.103 / def 0.840 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Getafe (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Getafe xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Osasuna xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Getafe vs Osasuna FAQs
What time does Getafe vs Osasuna kick off?
Getafe vs Osasuna kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 17 September 2023 at Estadio Coliseum.
What was the final score in Getafe vs Osasuna?
Getafe 3 - 2 Osasuna.
Where is Getafe vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Coliseum.
What competition is Getafe vs Osasuna part of?
Getafe vs Osasuna is a La Liga fixture (matchday 5) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Getafe vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Getafe a 35% chance of winning, Osasuna a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Getafe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Getafe vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Getafe and Osasuna will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Getafe vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (69%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Getafe's attack rating (0.81) and Osasuna's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Osasuna's attack versus Getafe's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Getafe's last 42 games and Osasuna's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Getafe Win
35%
2.86
31%
3.19
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Getafe xG
Total xG
1.95
0.97
Osasuna xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
13%
7.53
13%
7.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 13.7 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Getafe vs Osasuna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Getafe vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Getafe and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Getafe and 0.97 for Osasuna, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Getafe vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 42 outings, Getafe have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 11W 13D 18L record — D-D-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Osasuna's form line: 17W 8D 17L from 42 games, 1.40 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Getafe on 1.10 PPG, Osasuna on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Getafe have posted 1.48 PPG from their last 21 home games (8W 7D 6L).
On the road, Osasuna have gone 6W 7D 8L from their last 21 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Getafe are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.00 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Getafe have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Getafe
Early Season
Osasuna
Early Season
Getafe (Home) vs Osasuna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Getafe
Early Season
Osasuna
Early Season
❓ Getafe vs Osasuna Form FAQs
What form are Getafe and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Getafe have gone 11W 13D 18L in their last 42 games (1.10 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 17W 8D 17L in their last 42 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Getafe at home or Osasuna away?
Getafe's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Getafe at home: 1.48 PPG; Osasuna away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Getafe or Osasuna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Getafe have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Osasuna in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2022. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was as recently as 31 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Getafe's record when hosting Osasuna specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Getafe
2
Draws
3
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Getafe vs Osasuna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Getafe and Osasuna?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Getafe have won 5, Osasuna have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Getafe and Osasuna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 August 2026: Osasuna 1-0 Getafe.
Who has won more matches between Getafe and Osasuna?
Getafe have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Getafe see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Getafe 43%, Osasuna 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Getafe and 29% for Osasuna.
On the defensive side: Getafe keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Getafe have failed to score in 33% of games; Osasuna in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Getafe home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Getafe vs Osasuna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Getafe and Osasuna matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Getafe's recent matches and 43% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Getafe and Osasuna matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Getafe's recent games and 29% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Getafe and Osasuna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 57% of Getafe's recent matches and 71% of Osasuna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Getafe edge out Osasuna 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Getafe beat Osasuna 3-2 at Estadio Coliseum, Regular Season - 5, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Getafe 0.99 xG and Osasuna 0.97 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Getafe beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Osasuna outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Getafe attack 0.81 / defence 0.76 against Osasuna attack 1.10 / defence 0.84, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Getafe 35% | Draw 31% | Osasuna 34%, with Getafe to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Getafe 38%, Osasuna 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Getafe's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Osasuna's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Getafe 1.10 PPG, Osasuna 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Getafe win broke the near-deadlock. Getafe (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Osasuna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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