Low Scoring Predictions
Fixtures ranked by lowest predicted expected total goals — Sunday 3 October 2021
Our prediction model identifies fixtures where both teams have historically weak attack or strong defence. Fixtures at the top of this list have the lowest combined expected goals (xG) — making them the best candidates for Under 2.5 goals and low-scoring correct score markets.
20 fixtures cleared the bar on Sunday 3 October 2021. Chapecoense-sc vs Sao Paulo sits top on 2.13 in the Serie A. The shortlist runs from 2.13 down to 1.58, so the tail is materially weaker than the top.
The shortlist spans nine different competitions, a broad spread rather than one division dominating.
Of the 20 fixtures on this list that have since finished, nine landed the low scoring market — 45%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.
Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Super League 1 · Greece
Premier League · Ukraine
Primeira Liga · Portugal
Veikkausliiga · Finland
Canadian Premier League · Canada
Premier League · England
Challenger Pro League · Belgium
Super League 1 · Greece
Thai League 1 · Thailand
Premier League · Russia
K League 1 · South-Korea
Allsvenskan · Sweden
Super League 1 · Greece
Veikkausliiga · Finland
Primera División · Chile
La Liga · Spain
Bundesliga · Germany
K League 1 · South-Korea
Premier League · England
Serie A · Brazil
Showing top 20 fixtures by lowest combined expected goals. Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.
Related markets
Low Scoring — common questions
What does the Low Scoring market mean?
Low Scoring settles on whether a match is expected to stay tight, typically under 2.5 goals. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.
How does Fixture360 calculate low scoring probability?
Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The combined expected goals shown here is the sum of both teams' expected goals, ranked ascending so the tightest games surface first. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.
How many fixtures qualified for Low Scoring on Sunday 3 October 2021?
20 fixtures met the criteria, led by Chapecoense-sc vs Sao Paulo at 2.13 combined expected goals.
Which fixtures appear on this page?
Fixtures with the lowest combined expected goals of the day, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.
How accurate are these low scoring predictions?
Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.
Are these predictions betting tips?
No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.