Ionikos 1-2 Lamia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 43% as Ionikos take on Lamia.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ionikos host Lamia at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias in Super League 1, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 3 October 2021 at 18:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Ionikos — All Games: 1W 2D 1L from 4 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.25 points per game. Last five: L W D D. They are averaging 0.25 goals per game and conceding 0.75 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 4 games (75%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Ionikos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamia stand at 0W 1D 3L from 4 Super League 1 matches — 0.25 PPG. Last five: L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.75 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Lamia have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On current form, Ionikos have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.25 vs 0.25) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Ionikos in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time; they fail to score in 75% of games.
Lamia in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ionikos 0% versus Lamia 75%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ionikos 25% | Lamia 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ionikos 0.92 xG and Lamia 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ionikos attack 0.813 / defence 0.881 | Lamia attack 0.750 / defence 1.158. League average goals — home 0.972 / away 1.004. Data: 4 Ionikos games / 4 Lamia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ionikos 36% | Draw 43% | Lamia 21%. Fair-value odds: Ionikos 2.78 | Draw 2.33 | Lamia 4.76. The draw (43%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 21% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.58. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 79% probability — total xG of 1.58 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Lamia's lower xG of 0.66 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 43% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 21% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 21% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 33% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ionikos 0% | Lamia 75% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ionikos vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Oct 2021, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ionikos 36% | Draw 43% | Lamia 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 21% | BTTS 33% | xG Ionikos 0.92 / Lamia 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Ionikos attack 0.813 / def 0.881 | Lamia attack 0.750 / def 1.158 | league avg home 0.972 / away 1.004 • Poisson stance: Draw (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Ionikos xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Lamia xG
33%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ionikos vs Lamia kick off?
Ionikos vs Lamia kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 3 October 2021 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias.
What was the final score in Ionikos vs Lamia?
Ionikos 1 - 2 Lamia.
Where is Ionikos vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias.
What competition is Ionikos vs Lamia part of?
Ionikos vs Lamia is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Ionikos vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives Ionikos a 36% chance of winning, Lamia a 21% chance, and a 43% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Ionikos vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Ionikos and Lamia will score (BTTS).
Will Ionikos vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 21%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ionikos and Lamia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ionikos and Lamia in?
Ionikos (all comps): 1W-2D-1L in 4 | 1.25 PPG | GF 0.25 / GA 0.75 | L5 L-W-D-D. Lamia (all comps): 0W-1D-3L in 4 | 0.25 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.75 | L5 L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ionikos's attack rating (0.81) and Lamia's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 0.92 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lamia's attack versus Ionikos's defence, projects 0.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 22.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.2%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 54% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
36%
2.79
43%
2.34
21%
4.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
18.9%
Home win
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Ionikos xG
Total xG
1.58
0.66
Lamia xG
2.79
36%
Home win
2.34
43%
Draw
4.66
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
47%
Over 1.5
2.13
53%
Under 1.5
1.89
21%
Over 2.5
4.76
79%
Under 2.5
1.27
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.05
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
51%
1.94
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
18%
5.42
9%
11.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.6 | 13.7 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.9 | 12.5 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.6 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ionikos vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.2%.
How many goals are Ionikos and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Ionikos and 0.66 for Lamia, a combined total of 1.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Ionikos vs Lamia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ionikos's recent record stands at 1W 2D 1L from 4 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with L-W-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Ionikos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lamia, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 3L across 4 games — 0.25 PPG, with L-L-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Lamia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ionikos by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lamia heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Ionikos are averaging 0.25 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 1.00 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ionikos have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Lamia in 75%.
Defensively: Ionikos have kept a clean sheet in 75% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ionikos
Early Season
Lamia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ionikos and Lamia in coming into this match?
Ionikos have gone 1W 2D 1L in their last 4 games (1.25 PPG), while Lamia have gone 0W 1D 3L in their last 4 (0.25 PPG).
Have Ionikos or Lamia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ionikos have kept a clean sheet in 75% of their recent games, Lamia in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Ionikos's record when hosting Lamia specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Ionikos
2
Draws
2
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ionikos and Lamia?
From 6 meetings on record, Ionikos have won 2, Lamia have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ionikos and Lamia last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2023, when Ionikos 2-2 Lamia.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ionikos tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ionikos 0%, Lamia 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Ionikos) and 75% (Lamia).
On the defensive side: Ionikos keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches; Ionikos have failed to score in 75% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ionikos home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ionikos play Lamia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Ionikos's recent matches and 75% of Lamia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ionikos vs Lamia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Ionikos's recent games and 75% of Lamia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ionikos and Lamia tend to score early?
Ionikos have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Lamia in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lamia defy the odds to beat Ionikos 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamia beat Ionikos 1-2 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ionikos 0.92 xG and Lamia 0.66 xG, a combined 1.58. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Lamia outscored their 0.66 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ionikos attack 0.81 / defence 0.88 against Lamia attack 0.75 / defence 1.16, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ionikos 36% | Draw 43% | Lamia 21%, with the draw its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Lamia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 51% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ionikos 25%, Lamia 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ionikos's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time, and conceded here.
Lamia's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ionikos arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.25. Form was overturned, with Lamia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ionikos shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lamia scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.