Atromitos 1-1 PAS Giannina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PAS Giannina at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atromitos vs PAS Giannina encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Atromitos and PAS Giannina meet at Stadio Peristeriou in Super League 1, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 October 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Atromitos have collected 0.25 PPG across 4 Super League 1 outings this season: 0W 1D 3L. Last five: D L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Atromitos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PAS Giannina's overall Super League 1 record this term: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.75 per game is modest, conceding 0.25 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 4 games (75%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. PAS Giannina have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On a straight form reading, PAS Giannina are the stronger side — 1.75 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.25). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Atromitos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
PAS Giannina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 50% versus PAS Giannina 25%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Atromitos 75% | PAS Giannina 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 0.80 xG and PAS Giannina 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 0.912 / defence 1.542 | PAS Giannina attack 0.781 / defence 0.889. League average goals — home 0.982 / away 0.900. Data: 4 Atromitos games / 4 PAS Giannina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atromitos 24% | Draw 37% | PAS Giannina 39%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 4.17 | Draw 2.70 | PAS Giannina 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates PAS Giannina as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAS Giannina if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.88 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Atromitos 50% | PAS Giannina 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs PAS Giannina | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadio Peristeriou • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 24% | Draw 37% | PAS Giannina 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 39% | xG Atromitos 0.80 / PAS Giannina 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 0.912 / def 1.542 | PAS Giannina attack 0.781 / def 0.889 | league avg home 0.982 / away 0.900 • Poisson stance: PAS Giannina (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
1.08
PAS Giannina xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atromitos vs PAS Giannina kick off?
Atromitos vs PAS Giannina kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 3 October 2021 at Stadio Peristeriou.
What was the final score in Atromitos vs PAS Giannina?
Atromitos 1 - 1 PAS Giannina.
Where is Atromitos vs PAS Giannina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Peristeriou.
What competition is Atromitos vs PAS Giannina part of?
Atromitos vs PAS Giannina is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs PAS Giannina?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 24% chance of winning, PAS Giannina a 39% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making PAS Giannina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs PAS Giannina?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Atromitos and PAS Giannina will score (BTTS).
Will Atromitos vs PAS Giannina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and PAS Giannina?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Atromitos and PAS Giannina in?
Atromitos (all comps): 0W-1D-3L in 4 | 0.25 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L. PAS Giannina (all comps): 2W-2D-0L in 4 | 2.00 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 0.25 | L5 W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Atromitos's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against PAS Giannina's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.80. Flip it around — PAS Giannina's attack (0.78x) against Atromitos's defence (1.54x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 0-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAS Giannina Win
24%
4.17
37%
2.73
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Atromitos xG
Total xG
1.88
1.08
PAS Giannina xG
4.17
24%
Home win
2.73
37%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
45%
2.22
Win to Nil
8%
12.32
18%
5.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.2 | 16.5 | 9.0 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.2 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs PAS Giannina?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are Atromitos and PAS Giannina expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Atromitos and 1.08 for PAS Giannina, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs PAS Giannina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Atromitos come into this having played 4 games, going 0W 1D 3L for 0.25 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Atromitos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, PAS Giannina sit at 2.00 PPG from 4 outings (2W 2D 0L), a run that reads W-W-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for PAS Giannina, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
PAS Giannina carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.75 PPG clear of Atromitos — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Atromitos are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; PAS Giannina are on 0.75 scored and 0.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PAS Giannina in 25%.
Defensively: PAS Giannina in 75% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Early Season
PAS Giannina
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atromitos and PAS Giannina in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 0W 1D 3L in their last 4 games (0.25 PPG), while PAS Giannina have gone 2W 2D 0L in their last 4 (2.00 PPG).
Have Atromitos or PAS Giannina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atromitos have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, PAS Giannina in 75%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atromitos have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against PAS Giannina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Atromitos
6
Draws
0
PAS Giannina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and PAS Giannina?
From 8 meetings on record, Atromitos have won 2, PAS Giannina have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Atromitos and PAS Giannina last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when Atromitos 3-2 PAS Giannina.
Who has won more matches between Atromitos and PAS Giannina?
Atromitos have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Atromitos see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
PAS Giannina see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atromitos 50%, PAS Giannina 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Atromitos) and 0% (PAS Giannina).
On the defensive side: PAS Giannina in 75%; Atromitos have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / PAS Giannina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atromitos play PAS Giannina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Atromitos's recent matches and 25% of PAS Giannina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atromitos vs PAS Giannina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Atromitos's recent games and 0% of PAS Giannina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Atromitos and PAS Giannina share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atromitos and PAS Giannina finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Peristeriou, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 0.80 xG and PAS Giannina 1.08 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 0.91 / defence 1.54 against PAS Giannina attack 0.78 / defence 0.89, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atromitos 24% | Draw 37% | PAS Giannina 39%, with PAS Giannina to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 75%, PAS Giannina 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atromitos's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
PAS Giannina's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, PAS Giannina arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.25. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Atromitos conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.