Sharjah FC 1-2 Al Nasr – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al Nasr at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sharjah FC face Al Nasr.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Sharjah FC welcome Al Nasr to Sharjah Stadium in Pro League (matchday 19). Kick-off is Wednesday 11 March 2026 at 17:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Sharjah FC have gone 4W 1D 5L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Sharjah FC have gone 4W 0D 6L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Nasr stand at 2W 6D 2L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Al Nasr away from home: 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sharjah FC 1.30 PPG, Al Nasr 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 9 H2H matches we hold have produced 4 wins for Sharjah FC, 3 for Al Nasr and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 6 Jan 2026, ended Sharjah FC 4–2 Al Nasr — a Sharjah FC win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sharjah FC trading profile (last 44 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Al Nasr trading profile (last 44 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sharjah FC 46% versus Al Nasr 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sharjah FC 54% | Al Nasr 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sharjah FC 1.46 xG and Al Nasr 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sharjah FC attack 1.156 / defence 1.217 | Al Nasr attack 0.933 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.410. Sharjah FC's defence rating of 1.217 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Nasr's projected output up. Data: built from Sharjah FC's last 44 games and Al Nasr's last 44.
Result probabilities: Sharjah FC 35% | Draw 24% | Al Nasr 41%. Fair-value odds: Sharjah FC 2.86 | Draw 4.18 | Al Nasr 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.46 / 1.60) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Nasr at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Nasr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Sharjah FC's last 10 home games and Al Nasr's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sharjah FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Al Nasr 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr | Competition: Pro League, matchday 19 | Venue: Sharjah Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 11 March 2026 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sharjah FC 35% | Draw 24% | Al Nasr 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Sharjah FC 1.46 / Al Nasr 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Sharjah FC attack 1.156 / def 1.217 | Al Nasr attack 0.933 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.389 / away 1.410 • Poisson stance: Al Nasr (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Sharjah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Al Nasr xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr FAQs
What time does Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr kick off?
Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Wednesday 11 March 2026 at Sharjah Stadium.
What was the final score in Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr?
Sharjah FC 1 - 2 Al Nasr.
Where is Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr being played?
The match is being played at Sharjah Stadium.
What competition is Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr part of?
Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr is a Pro League fixture (matchday 19) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr?
Our statistical model gives Sharjah FC a 35% chance of winning, Al Nasr a 41% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al Nasr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Sharjah FC and Al Nasr will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sharjah FC's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Al Nasr's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. The same calculation in reverse, Al Nasr's attack versus Sharjah FC's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sharjah FC's last 44 games and Al Nasr's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Nasr Win
35%
2.86
24%
4.18
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Sharjah FC xG
Total xG
3.06
1.60
Al Nasr xG
2.86
35%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
20%
4.96
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
7%
14.17
10%
10.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.5 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.9 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.0 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Sharjah FC and Al Nasr expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Sharjah FC and 1.60 for Al Nasr, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 44 outings, Sharjah FC have picked up 1.61 PPG on a 22W 5D 17L record — W-L-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Al Nasr's form line: 16W 13D 15L from 44 games, 1.39 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sharjah FC on 1.61 PPG, Al Nasr on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sharjah FC have posted 1.76 PPG from their last 21 home games (12W 1D 8L).
On the road, Al Nasr have gone 6W 7D 8L from their last 21 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sharjah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sharjah FC are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Al Nasr are on 1.52 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Nasr in 66%.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sharjah FC
Blended
Al Nasr
Blended
Sharjah FC (Home) vs Al Nasr (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sharjah FC
Blended
Al Nasr
Blended
❓ Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr Form FAQs
What form are Sharjah FC and Al Nasr in coming into this match?
Sharjah FC have gone 22W 5D 17L in their last 44 games (1.61 PPG), while Al Nasr have gone 16W 13D 15L in their last 44 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sharjah FC at home or Al Nasr away?
Sharjah FC's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sharjah FC at home: 1.76 PPG; Al Nasr away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Sharjah FC or Al Nasr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Al Nasr in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 11 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 22 Oct 2021, when Al Nasr won Sharjah FC 0-3 Al Nasr.
Sharjah FC's record when hosting Al Nasr specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sharjah FC
2
Draws
4
Al Nasr
Recent Meetings
❓ Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al Nasr?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sharjah FC have won 4, Al Nasr have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sharjah FC and Al Nasr last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 March 2026: Sharjah FC 1-2 Al Nasr.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Al Nasr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sharjah FC 33%, Al Nasr 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Sharjah FC) and 62% (Al Nasr). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sharjah FC keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Sharjah FC have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sharjah FC home games / Al Nasr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sharjah FC and Al Nasr matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Sharjah FC's recent matches and 67% of Al Nasr's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sharjah FC and Al Nasr matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Sharjah FC's matches and 62% of Al Nasr's.
Do Sharjah FC and Al Nasr matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Sharjah FC's recent matches and 67% of Al Nasr's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Nasr edge out Sharjah FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Nasr beat Sharjah FC 1-2 at Sharjah Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 1.46 xG and Al Nasr 1.60 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 1.16 / defence 1.22 against Al Nasr attack 0.93 / defence 0.91, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 35% | Draw 24% | Al Nasr 41%, with Al Nasr to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sharjah FC 54%, Al Nasr 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sharjah FC's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Nasr's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sharjah FC 1.61 PPG, Al Nasr 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Nasr win broke the near-deadlock. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.