🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Al Wahda FC at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Baniyas SC vs Al Wahda FC encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Baniyas SC and Al Wahda FC meet at Baniyas Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 12 March 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

Current Form

Baniyas SC's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Baniyas SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Baniyas Stadium, Baniyas SC have gone 1W 3D 6L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Baniyas Stadium this season.

Al Wahda FC have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al Wahda FC's away record: 5W 4D 1L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head ledger leans to Al Wahda FC, who have claimed 5 wins from 9 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 3 draws.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Jan 2026, ended 0–3 with Al Wahda FC winning.

It is worth noting that Al Wahda FC have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading & In-Play

Baniyas SC — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 39% of games.

Al Wahda FC — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baniyas SC 46% versus Al Wahda FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baniyas SC 57% | Al Wahda FC 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Baniyas SC 1.08 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baniyas SC attack 0.947 / defence 1.137 | Al Wahda FC attack 1.011 / defence 0.818. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.401. Data: 44 Baniyas SC games / 44 Al Wahda FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Baniyas SC 25% | Draw 25% | Al Wahda FC 49%. Fair-value odds: Baniyas SC 4.00 | Draw 4.00 | Al Wahda FC 2.04. Al Wahda FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al Wahda FC are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Wahda FC if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Baniyas SC 50% | Al Wahda FC 50%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights