Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1-1 Al Wahda FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 57% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai welcome Al Wahda FC to Al Rashid Stadium in Pro League (matchday 16). Kick-off is Saturday 7 March 2026 at 17:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 9W 1D 0L — a 2.80 PPG return. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 3.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have posted 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Wahda FC stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Al Wahda FC away from home: 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On current form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.80 vs 1.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 9 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, 1 for Al Wahda FC and 5 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 9 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.6 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 23 Aug 2025, ended Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0–0 Al Wahda FC — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.6 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in-play tendencies (last 43 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
Al Wahda FC in-play tendencies (last 43 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 46% versus Al Wahda FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 56% | Al Wahda FC 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.93 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.533 / defence 0.741 | Al Wahda FC attack 1.009 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.464. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai carry an above-average attack rating of 1.533 — their 1.93 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have a tight defence (rating 0.741), which is pulling Al Wahda FC's projected output down. Data: built from Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's last 43 games and Al Wahda FC's last 43.
Result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 57% | Draw 22% | Al Wahda FC 21%. Fair-value odds: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.76 | Draw 4.54 | Al Wahda FC 4.71. The model has a clear lean to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 30% (last 10 home games) | Al Wahda FC 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC | Competition: Pro League, matchday 16 | Venue: Al Rashid Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 March 2026 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 57% | Draw 22% | Al Wahda FC 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.93 / Al Wahda FC 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.533 / def 0.741 | Al Wahda FC attack 1.009 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.464 • Poisson stance: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Al Wahda FC xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC FAQs
What time does Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC kick off?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Saturday 7 March 2026 at Al Rashid Stadium.
What was the final score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1 - 1 Al Wahda FC.
Where is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC being played?
The match is being played at Al Rashid Stadium.
What competition is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC part of?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC is a Pro League fixture (matchday 16) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC?
Our statistical model gives Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 57% chance of winning, Al Wahda FC a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Wahda FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack rating (1.53) and Al Wahda FC's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Wahda FC's attack versus Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's last 43 games and Al Wahda FC's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Win
57%
1.76
22%
4.54
21%
4.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Total xG
3.02
1.09
Al Wahda FC xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
4.71
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
15%
6.87
Win to Nil
19%
5.27
3%
32.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 10.3 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Wahda FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 1.09 for Al Wahda FC, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's recent record stands at 32W 9D 2L from 43 games, a 2.44 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five.
Al Wahda FC, meanwhile, have gone 22W 15D 6L across 43 games — 1.88 PPG, with D-W-D-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Wahda FC heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have managed 17W 2D 1L from their last 20 home games — 2.65 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Wahda FC's away record stands at 9W 7D 4L across their last 20 away games, a 1.70 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are averaging 2.21 goals scored and 0.63 conceded per game recently; Al Wahda FC are on 1.84 scored and 1.07 conceded. Al Wahda FC's attacking output running into Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their games; Al Wahda FC in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
Al Wahda FC
Blended
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (Home) vs Al Wahda FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
Al Wahda FC
Blended
❓ Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC Form FAQs
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Wahda FC in coming into this match?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 32W 9D 2L in their last 43 games (2.44 PPG), while Al Wahda FC have gone 22W 15D 6L in their last 43 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home or Al Wahda FC away?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's home record (2.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home: 2.65 PPG; Al Wahda FC away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Shabab Al Ahli Dubai or Al Wahda FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their recent games, Al Wahda FC in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 7 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's record when hosting Al Wahda FC specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
6
Draws
1
Al Wahda FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Wahda FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 3, Al Wahda FC have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Wahda FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 March 2026: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1-1 Al Wahda FC.
Who has won more matches between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Wahda FC?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 40%, Al Wahda FC 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai) and 40% (Al Wahda FC).
On the defensive side: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches; Al Wahda FC in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shabab Al Ahli Dubai home games / Al Wahda FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Wahda FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's recent matches and 45% of Al Wahda FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Wahda FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's recent games and 40% of Al Wahda FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Wahda FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's recent matches and 60% of Al Wahda FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Wahda FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Wahda FC finished level at 1-1 at Al Rashid Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.93 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.09 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.53 / defence 0.74 against Al Wahda FC attack 1.01 / defence 0.92, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 57% | Draw 22% | Al Wahda FC 21%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 56%, Al Wahda FC 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.44 PPG against 1.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.