Khorfakkan 2-3 Al Ain – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al Ain (65%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Khorfakkan face Al Ain.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Khorfakkan host Al Ain at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium in Pro League (matchday 18). Kick-off is Friday 27 February 2026 at 17:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Khorfakkan have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Khorfakkan have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Ain stand at 6W 4D 0L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al Ain away from home: 8W 2D 0L from their last 10 away games — 2.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al Ain — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of Khorfakkan's games and 60% of Al Ain's (from Khorfakkan's last 10 home games and Al Ain's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Despite the home advantage, Al Ain have the better record in our head-to-head data — 7 wins from 8 H2H matches against 0 for Khorfakkan.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 20 Sep 2025, ended Khorfakkan 0–3 Al Ain — a Al Ain win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Al Ain have won 7 of 8 H2H matches, and at 3.8 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Khorfakkan in-play and half-time data (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Al Ain in-play and half-time data (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 62%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Khorfakkan 63% and Al Ain 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khorfakkan 63% | Al Ain 65%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Khorfakkan surrender their half-time lead 47% of the time, while Al Ain have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 62% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khorfakkan 1.19 xG and Al Ain 2.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khorfakkan attack 0.986 / defence 1.335 | Al Ain attack 1.235 / defence 0.881. League average goals — home 1.371 / away 1.473. Al Ain have an above-average attack rating of 1.235, which lifts their away xG to 2.43. Khorfakkan's defence rating of 1.335 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Ain's projected output up. Data: built from Khorfakkan's last 43 games and Al Ain's last 43.
Result probabilities: Khorfakkan 17% | Draw 18% | Al Ain 65%. Fair-value odds: Khorfakkan 5.82 | Draw 5.49 | Al Ain 1.55. The model has a clear lean to Al Ain (65%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.19 / 2.43) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Ain are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.62 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Khorfakkan's last 10 home games and Al Ain's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Khorfakkan 80% (last 10 home games) | Al Ain 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khorfakkan vs Al Ain | Competition: Pro League, matchday 18 | Venue: Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 27 February 2026 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khorfakkan 17% | Draw 18% | Al Ain 65% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% (Under 30%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Khorfakkan 1.19 / Al Ain 2.43 • Poisson strength factors: Khorfakkan attack 0.986 / def 1.335 | Al Ain attack 1.235 / def 0.881 | league avg home 1.371 / away 1.473 • Poisson stance: Al Ain (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Khorfakkan xG
Expected Goals
2.43
Al Ain xG
63%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Khorfakkan vs Al Ain FAQs
What time does Khorfakkan vs Al Ain kick off?
Khorfakkan vs Al Ain kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Friday 27 February 2026 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What was the final score in Khorfakkan vs Al Ain?
Khorfakkan 2 - 3 Al Ain.
Where is Khorfakkan vs Al Ain being played?
The match is being played at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What competition is Khorfakkan vs Al Ain part of?
Khorfakkan vs Al Ain is a Pro League fixture (matchday 18) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Khorfakkan vs Al Ain?
Our statistical model gives Khorfakkan a 17% chance of winning, Al Ain a 65% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Al Ain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khorfakkan vs Al Ain?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Khorfakkan and Al Ain will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Khorfakkan vs Al Ain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Khorfakkan's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Al Ain's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, Al Ain's attack versus Khorfakkan's defence, projects 2.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Khorfakkan's last 43 games and Al Ain's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 9.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.8%), 0-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Ain Win
17%
5.82
18%
5.49
65%
1.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
7.9%
Away win
1 – 1
7.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Khorfakkan xG
Total xG
3.62
2.43
Al Ain xG
5.82
17%
Home win
5.49
18%
Draw
1.55
65%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
9%
11.34
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
2%
66.02
20%
5.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 6.5 | 7.9 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.9 |
| 1 | 3.2 | 7.8 | 9.4 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 2.2 |
| 2 | 1.9 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Khorfakkan vs Al Ain Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Khorfakkan vs Al Ain?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Khorfakkan and Al Ain expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Khorfakkan and 2.43 for Al Ain, a combined total of 3.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Khorfakkan vs Al Ain?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, Khorfakkan have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 14W 10D 19L record — D-W-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Al Ain's form line: 24W 13D 6L from 43 games, 1.98 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Al Ain are the form team by 0.77 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Khorfakkan.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Khorfakkan have posted 1.10 PPG from their last 21 home games (5W 8D 8L).
On the road, Al Ain have gone 12W 5D 4L from their last 21 away games — 1.95 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Ain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Khorfakkan are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; Al Ain are on 2.12 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Khorfakkan have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Al Ain in 60%.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khorfakkan
Blended
Al Ain
Blended
Khorfakkan (Home) vs Al Ain (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Khorfakkan
Blended
Al Ain
Blended
❓ Khorfakkan vs Al Ain Form FAQs
What form are Khorfakkan and Al Ain in coming into this match?
Khorfakkan have gone 14W 10D 19L in their last 43 games (1.21 PPG), while Al Ain have gone 24W 13D 6L in their last 43 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khorfakkan at home or Al Ain away?
Al Ain's away record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khorfakkan at home: 1.10 PPG; Al Ain away: 1.95 PPG.
Have Khorfakkan or Al Ain been keeping clean sheets recently?
Khorfakkan have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Al Ain in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2022. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 22 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al Ain have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 24 Aug 2024, when Al Ain won Al Ain 5-1 Khorfakkan.
Khorfakkan's record when hosting Al Ain specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Khorfakkan
1
Draws
9
Al Ain
Recent Meetings
❓ Khorfakkan vs Al Ain H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Al Ain?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Khorfakkan have won 0, Al Ain have won 9, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Khorfakkan and Al Ain last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2026: Al Ain 2-0 Khorfakkan.
Who has won more matches between Khorfakkan and Al Ain?
Al Ain have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Al Ain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khorfakkan 67%, Al Ain 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for Khorfakkan and 71% for Al Ain. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Ain in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khorfakkan home games / Al Ain away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Khorfakkan vs Al Ain Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Khorfakkan and Al Ain matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Khorfakkan's games and 62% of Al Ain's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Khorfakkan and Al Ain matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Khorfakkan's matches and 71% of Al Ain's.
Do Khorfakkan and Al Ain matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Khorfakkan's recent matches and 62% of Al Ain's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Ain edge out Khorfakkan 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Ain beat Khorfakkan 2-3 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khorfakkan 1.19 xG and Al Ain 2.43 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Khorfakkan beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khorfakkan attack 0.99 / defence 1.33 against Al Ain attack 1.24 / defence 0.88, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khorfakkan 17% | Draw 18% | Al Ain 65%, with Al Ain to win its most likely call at 65%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khorfakkan 63%, Al Ain 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khorfakkan's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Al Ain's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Ain arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.21. Form held, and they took the win. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Ain (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.