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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad Kalba at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Dhafra fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 18 as Al-Ittihad Kalba welcome Al-Dhafra to Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 26 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

Form Guide

Al-Ittihad Kalba — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Ittihad Kalba at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Dhafra have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Dhafra, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Dhafra's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 5L across 8 road games this term (0.62 PPG). Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 2.38 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Al-Ittihad Kalba) versus 0.50 (Al-Dhafra). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Ittihad Kalba register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Al-Dhafra in 62% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Al-Ittihad Kalba, 1 for Al-Dhafra and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2025, ended 0–3 with Al-Dhafra winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Al-Ittihad Kalba in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

Al-Dhafra in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad Kalba 59% versus Al-Dhafra 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad Kalba 59% | Al-Dhafra 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.68 xG and Al-Dhafra 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.928 / defence 1.164 | Al-Dhafra attack 0.833 / defence 1.352. League average goals — home 1.337 / away 1.497. Al-Dhafra bring a strong defensive rating of 1.352 — this is suppressing Al-Ittihad Kalba's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Al-Ittihad Kalba games / 17 Al-Dhafra games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 43% | Draw 24% | Al-Dhafra 33%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.33 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Dhafra 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Ittihad Kalba are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad Kalba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.13 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad Kalba 70% | Al-Dhafra 62% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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