Al Bataeh 0-1 Baniyas SC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Baniyas SC at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Bataeh vs Baniyas SC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Bataeh host Baniyas SC at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 27 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Bataeh — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Bataeh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium, Al Bataeh have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Baniyas SC have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Baniyas SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baniyas SC away from home this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Al Bataeh) versus 1.10 (Baniyas SC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
Al Bataeh hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 7 previous encounters compared to 0 for Baniyas SC, with 4 draws in between.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Jan 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al Bataeh and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Al Bataeh in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Baniyas SC in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Bataeh 60% versus Baniyas SC 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Bataeh 52% | Baniyas SC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Bataeh 1.13 xG and Baniyas SC 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Bataeh attack 0.787 / defence 1.174 | Baniyas SC attack 0.929 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.371 / away 1.473. Al Bataeh's attack strength of 0.787 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 43 Al Bataeh games / 42 Baniyas SC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Bataeh 27% | Draw 25% | Baniyas SC 48%. Fair-value odds: Al Bataeh 3.70 | Draw 4.00 | Baniyas SC 2.08. Baniyas SC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Baniyas SC as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baniyas SC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Al Bataeh 60% | Baniyas SC 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Bataeh vs Baniyas SC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 27 Feb 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Bataeh 27% | Draw 25% | Baniyas SC 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Al Bataeh 1.13 / Baniyas SC 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Al Bataeh attack 0.787 / def 1.174 | Baniyas SC attack 0.929 / def 1.045 | league avg home 1.371 / away 1.473 • Poisson stance: Baniyas SC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Al Bataeh xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Baniyas SC xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Bataeh vs Baniyas SC kick off?
Al Bataeh vs Baniyas SC kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 27 February 2026 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Bataeh vs Baniyas SC?
Al Bataeh 0 - 1 Baniyas SC.
Where is Al Bataeh vs Baniyas SC being played?
The match is being played at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What competition is Al Bataeh vs Baniyas SC part of?
Al Bataeh vs Baniyas SC is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Bataeh vs Baniyas SC?
Our statistical model gives Al Bataeh a 27% chance of winning, Baniyas SC a 48% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Baniyas SC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Bataeh vs Baniyas SC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al Bataeh and Baniyas SC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Bataeh vs Baniyas SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Baniyas SC?
Record (7 meetings): Al Bataeh 3W | Draws 4 | Baniyas SC 0W.
What form are Al Bataeh and Baniyas SC in?
Al Bataeh (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-D-L. Baniyas SC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Bataeh's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Baniyas SC's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. The same calculation in reverse, Baniyas SC's attack versus Al Bataeh's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baniyas SC Win
27%
3.74
25%
4.03
48%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Al Bataeh xG
Total xG
2.73
1.61
Baniyas SC xG
3.74
27%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
2.06
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
20%
4.99
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
5%
18.66
16%
6.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 10.4 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.6 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Bataeh vs Baniyas SC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Al Bataeh and Baniyas SC expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Al Bataeh and 1.61 for Baniyas SC, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Bataeh vs Baniyas SC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Bataeh come into this having played 42 games, going 10W 10D 22L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-D-L. The sample for Al Bataeh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Baniyas SC sit at 0.90 PPG from 42 outings (10W 8D 24L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Baniyas SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Bataeh on 0.95 PPG, Baniyas SC on 0.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al Bataeh's home form reads 3W 6D 12L across 21 games on their own ground, a 0.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Baniyas SC have taken 1.05 points per game from 21 outings (7W 1D 13L).
The Goals Picture
Al Bataeh are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Baniyas SC are on 1.07 scored and 1.98 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Bataeh
Blended
Baniyas SC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Bataeh and Baniyas SC in coming into this match?
Al Bataeh have gone 10W 10D 22L in their last 42 games (0.95 PPG), while Baniyas SC have gone 10W 8D 24L in their last 42 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Bataeh at home or Baniyas SC away?
Baniyas SC's away record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Bataeh at home: 0.71 PPG; Baniyas SC away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Bataeh and Baniyas SC runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al Bataeh's record when hosting Baniyas SC specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Al Bataeh
4
Draws
1
Baniyas SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Baniyas SC?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Bataeh have won 3, Baniyas SC have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al Bataeh and Baniyas SC last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Al Bataeh 0-1 Baniyas SC.
Who has won more matches between Al Bataeh and Baniyas SC?
Al Bataeh have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Bataeh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Baniyas SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Bataeh 62%, Baniyas SC 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Al Bataeh) and 52% (Baniyas SC).
On the defensive side: Al Bataeh have failed to score in 29% of games; Baniyas SC in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Bataeh home games / Baniyas SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Bataeh play Baniyas SC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Al Bataeh's recent matches and 38% of Baniyas SC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Bataeh vs Baniyas SC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Al Bataeh's recent games and 52% of Baniyas SC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Bataeh and Baniyas SC tend to score early?
Al Bataeh have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Baniyas SC in 95% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Baniyas SC edge out Al Bataeh 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baniyas SC beat Al Bataeh 0-1 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Bataeh 1.13 xG and Baniyas SC 1.61 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al Bataeh fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Bataeh attack 0.79 / defence 1.17 against Baniyas SC attack 0.93 / defence 1.04, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Bataeh 27% | Draw 25% | Baniyas SC 48%, with Baniyas SC to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Bataeh 52%, Baniyas SC 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Bataeh's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Baniyas SC's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Bataeh 0.95 PPG, Baniyas SC 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Baniyas SC win broke the near-deadlock. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.