Dibba Al-Fujairah 1-1 Al Nasr – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al Nasr at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Dibba Al-Fujairah face Al Nasr.

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Full Analysis

Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium plays host to Dibba Al-Fujairah versus Al Nasr in Pro League (matchday 18). Kick-off: Friday 27 February 2026 at 17:30 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Dibba Al-Fujairah have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Dibba Al-Fujairah's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 5L across their last 8 home games (0.88 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Al Nasr's record over their last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L D D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Al Nasr have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Dibba Al-Fujairah, 1.40 for Al Nasr — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Dibba Al-Fujairah's last 8 home games and Al Nasr's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 75% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's games and 70% of Al Nasr's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Dibba Al-Fujairah edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Sep 2025, ended Dibba Al-Fujairah 1–1 Al Nasr — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

Dibba Al-Fujairah half-time and goal-timing data (last 16 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).

Al Nasr half-time and goal-timing data (last 16 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dibba Al-Fujairah 62% and Al Nasr 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dibba Al-Fujairah 56% | Al Nasr 44%). Note also that Al Nasr surrender HT leads in 57% of cases while Dibba Al-Fujairah recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.09 xG and Al Nasr 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.867 / defence 1.070 | Al Nasr attack 0.938 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.371 / away 1.473. Data: built from Dibba Al-Fujairah's last 16 games and Al Nasr's last 43.

Result probabilities: Dibba Al-Fujairah 28% | Draw 26% | Al Nasr 46%. Fair-value odds: Dibba Al-Fujairah 3.57 | Draw 3.85 | Al Nasr 2.17. Al Nasr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Al Nasr as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Nasr if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — low conviction — though recent form (Dibba Al-Fujairah's last 8 home games and Al Nasr's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Dibba Al-Fujairah 75% (last 8 home games) | Al Nasr 70% (last 10 away games).

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