Dibba Al-Fujairah 0-2 Ajman – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Ajman at 38% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Ajman encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Ajman make the trip to Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium to face Dibba Al-Fujairah in Pro League (matchday 25). The match kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 17:25 UK time.

Form

Dibba Al-Fujairah (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Dibba Al-Fujairah at home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Ajman have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Ajman have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Dibba Al-Fujairah, 1.40 for Ajman — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H Analysis

Across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Ajman have the stronger record — 3 wins to Dibba Al-Fujairah's 0, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 20 Dec 2025, ended Dibba Al-Fujairah 0–2 Ajman — a Ajman win.

The H2H data backs the away side. Ajman have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 3.7 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

Trading & In-Play

Dibba Al-Fujairah — key trading statistics (last 24 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

Ajman — key trading statistics (last 24 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dibba Al-Fujairah 62% versus Ajman 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dibba Al-Fujairah 58% | Ajman 33%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.18 xG and Ajman 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.836 / defence 1.055 | Ajman attack 0.827 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.479. Data: built from Dibba Al-Fujairah's last 24 games and Ajman's last 50.

Result probabilities: Dibba Al-Fujairah 33% | Draw 29% | Ajman 38%. Fair-value odds: Dibba Al-Fujairah 3.04 | Draw 3.47 | Ajman 2.62. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Ajman at 38% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Ajman 3 wins from 3 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ajman if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Dibba Al-Fujairah 60% (last 10 home games) | Ajman 30% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights