🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Al Nasr at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ajman vs Al Nasr fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Ajman and Al Nasr meet at Ajman Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Friday 15 May 2026 at 15:10 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Ajman have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ajman, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Ajman's home record at Ajman Stadium: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Al Nasr's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al Nasr, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al Nasr's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Ajman, 1.70 for Al Nasr — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Ajman have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Al Nasr in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Ajman 4W, Al Nasr 4W, 1D.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with Al Nasr winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Ajman half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

Al Nasr half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajman 49% versus Al Nasr 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajman 47% | Al Nasr 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ajman 1.03 xG and Al Nasr 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajman attack 0.837 / defence 1.020 | Al Nasr attack 0.900 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.446. Data: 51 Ajman games / 51 Al Nasr games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ajman 27% | Draw 31% | Al Nasr 42%. Fair-value odds: Ajman 3.70 | Draw 3.23 | Al Nasr 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Al Nasr as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Nasr if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Ajman 60% | Al Nasr 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights