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Poisson rates Al Wahda FC at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Khorfakkan vs Al Wahda FC encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Al Wahda FC travel to Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium to take on Khorfakkan. The game is scheduled for Monday 11 May 2026, 17:45 UTC.

Form Guide

Khorfakkan — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Khorfakkan's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 games at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Wahda FC stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al Wahda FC's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Khorfakkan at 1.10 PPG versus Al Wahda FC's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

Al Wahda FC have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 9 encounters against Khorfakkan's 1 victories.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Dec 2025, ended 0–1 with Al Wahda FC winning.

It is worth noting that Al Wahda FC have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

In-Play Profile

Khorfakkan in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.

Al Wahda FC in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khorfakkan 64% versus Al Wahda FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khorfakkan 62% | Al Wahda FC 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Khorfakkan 1.06 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khorfakkan attack 0.922 / defence 1.118 | Al Wahda FC attack 0.941 / defence 0.788. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.446. Al Wahda FC's defence strength of 0.788 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 50 Khorfakkan games / 50 Al Wahda FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Khorfakkan 25% | Draw 28% | Al Wahda FC 47%. Fair-value odds: Khorfakkan 4.00 | Draw 3.57 | Al Wahda FC 2.13. Al Wahda FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al Wahda FC are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Wahda FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Khorfakkan 70% | Al Wahda FC 50% BTTS from recent games.

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