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Poisson model favours Al Nasr (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Nasr face Al-Ittihad Kalba.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 25 as Al Nasr welcome Al-Ittihad Kalba to Al Maktoum Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 11 May 2026 at 15:10 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Nasr stand at 3W 6D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al Nasr, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Al Maktoum Stadium, Al Nasr have gone 2W 6D 2L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Al-Ittihad Kalba — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Ittihad Kalba's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Al Nasr are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Al Nasr, 2 for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 3 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2025, ended 1–0 with Al Nasr winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Al Nasr trading profile (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

Al-Ittihad Kalba trading profile (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Nasr 68% and Al-Ittihad Kalba 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Nasr 58% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Nasr 2.09 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Nasr attack 1.111 / defence 1.131 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.980 / defence 1.287. League average goals — home 1.462 / away 1.455. Al-Ittihad Kalba bring a strong defensive rating of 1.287 — this is suppressing Al Nasr's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Al Nasr games / 50 Al-Ittihad Kalba games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al Nasr 48% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 29%. Fair-value odds: Al Nasr 2.08 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 3.45. Al Nasr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.70. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.70 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (2.09 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al Nasr as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Nasr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.70 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 71% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Nasr 80% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 70% BTTS from recent games.

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