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Poisson model favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (63%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Baniyas SC face Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.

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Analysis & Preview

A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Shabab Al Ahli Dubai travel to Baniyas Stadium to take on Baniyas SC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 May 2026, 16:25 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Pro League games this season, Baniyas SC have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D L D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Baniyas SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Baniyas SC at Baniyas Stadium this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Baniyas Stadium this season.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away from home this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 away games — 2.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Form points away from home here. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's 2.10 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Baniyas SC's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Head to Head

Despite the anticipated home advantage, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better historical record — 7 wins from 9 previous contests against 2 for Baniyas SC.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 7 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Patterns

Baniyas SC in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 34% of games.

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baniyas SC 50% versus Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baniyas SC 56% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Baniyas SC 1.02 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baniyas SC attack 0.935 / defence 1.022 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.433 / defence 0.754. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.479. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence strength of 0.754 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have an above-average attack strength of 1.433 — the away xG of 2.17 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 50 Baniyas SC games / 50 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Baniyas SC 16% | Draw 21% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 63%. Fair-value odds: Baniyas SC 6.25 | Draw 4.76 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.59. The model has a clear lean to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.19 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Baniyas SC 60% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 30%.

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