Al-Wasl FC 1-1 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Wasl FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Wasl FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai meet at Zabeel Stadium in Pro League (matchday 18). This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 25 February 2026 at 17:30 UK time.
Form
Al-Wasl FC (all games): 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Al-Wasl FC have posted 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Al-Wasl FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have collected 3.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 10W 0D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 8W 2D 0L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 8 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (80%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrive in superior form — a 1.40 PPG advantage (3.00 vs 1.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 8 H2H matches in our data, Al-Wasl FC edge it 4 wins to 3, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.1 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 11 Jan 2026, ended Al-Wasl FC 1–3 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — a Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.1 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Wasl FC — key trading statistics (last 42 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — key trading statistics (last 42 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Wasl FC 60% versus Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Wasl FC 57% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Wasl FC 0.62 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Wasl FC attack 0.860 / defence 0.573 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.405 / defence 0.542. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 1.518. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai bring a tight defence (rating 0.542, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Al-Wasl FC's projected output down. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have an above-average attack rating of 1.405, which lifts their away xG to 1.22. Al-Wasl FC have a tight defence (rating 0.573), which is pulling Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's projected output down. Data: built from Al-Wasl FC's last 42 games and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's last 42.
Result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 19% | Draw 30% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 51%. Fair-value odds: Al-Wasl FC 5.32 | Draw 3.30 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.97. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS Yes probability 33% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Al-Wasl FC's lower xG of 0.62 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shabab Al Ahli Dubai if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.84 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 72% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Wasl FC's last 10 home games and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.1 goals per game across 8 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Wasl FC 40% (last 10 home games) | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Wasl FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | Competition: Pro League, matchday 18 | Venue: Zabeel Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 25 February 2026 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 19% | Draw 30% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% (Under 72%) | BTTS Yes 33% (No 67%) | xG Al-Wasl FC 0.62 / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Wasl FC attack 0.860 / def 0.573 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.405 / def 0.542 | league avg home 1.329 / away 1.518 • Poisson stance: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.62
Al-Wasl FC xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
33%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Wasl FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai FAQs
What time does Al-Wasl FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kick off?
Al-Wasl FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Wednesday 25 February 2026 at Zabeel Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Wasl FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Al-Wasl FC 1 - 1 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Where is Al-Wasl FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai being played?
The match is being played at Zabeel Stadium.
What competition is Al-Wasl FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai part of?
Al-Wasl FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is a Pro League fixture (matchday 18) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Wasl FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our statistical model gives Al-Wasl FC a 19% chance of winning, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 51% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Wasl FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Al-Wasl FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (67%).
Will Al-Wasl FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (72%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Wasl FC's attack at 0.86x the league average against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence at 0.54x — combine the two and it projects 0.62 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack (1.41x) against Al-Wasl FC's defence (0.57x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from Al-Wasl FC's last 42 games and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 17.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (17.4%), 1-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Win
19%
5.32
30%
3.30
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
19.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.62
Al-Wasl FC xG
Total xG
1.84
1.22
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
5.32
19%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.07
67%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
54%
1.86
Win to Nil
6%
18.03
27%
3.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.9 | 19.4 | 11.8 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.0 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Wasl FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Wasl FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.8%.
How many goals are Al-Wasl FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai expected to score?
The model projects 0.62 expected goals for Al-Wasl FC and 1.22 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Wasl FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Wasl FC's recent record stands at 21W 12D 9L from 42 games, a 1.79 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-W in the last five.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, meanwhile, have gone 32W 8D 2L across 42 games — 2.48 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Wasl FC heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Wasl FC have managed 14W 5D 3L from their last 22 home games — 2.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's away record stands at 15W 6D 1L across their last 22 away games, a 2.32 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Wasl FC are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are on 2.24 scored and 0.62 conceded.
Defensively: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Wasl FC
Blended
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
Al-Wasl FC (Home) vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Wasl FC
Blended
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
❓ Al-Wasl FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Form FAQs
What form are Al-Wasl FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in coming into this match?
Al-Wasl FC have gone 21W 12D 9L in their last 42 games (1.79 PPG), while Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 32W 8D 2L in their last 42 (2.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Wasl FC at home or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's away record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Wasl FC at home: 2.14 PPG; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away: 2.32 PPG.
Have Al-Wasl FC or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Wasl FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to March 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 28 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Wasl FC won Al-Wasl FC 3-0 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai on 26 May 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Wasl FC have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al-Wasl FC
2
Draws
4
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Wasl FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Wasl FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Wasl FC have won 4, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Wasl FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 August 2026: Al-Wasl FC 0-1 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Wasl FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Wasl FC 50%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Al-Wasl FC) and 59% (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai).
On the defensive side: Al-Wasl FC keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Wasl FC home games / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Wasl FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Wasl FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al-Wasl FC's recent matches and 50% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al-Wasl FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Al-Wasl FC's recent games and 59% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Wasl FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Al-Wasl FC's recent matches and 68% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Wasl FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Wasl FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai finished level at 1-1 at Zabeel Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Wasl FC 0.62 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.22 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Wasl FC attack 0.86 / defence 0.57 against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.41 / defence 0.54, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Wasl FC 19% | Draw 30% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 51%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Wasl FC 57%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (42 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (42 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.48 PPG against 1.79. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.09 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.