Al Wahda FC 2-0 Ajman – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Wahda FC at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Wahda FC face Ajman.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ajman make the trip to Al Nahyan Stadium to face Al Wahda FC in Pro League (matchday 18). The match kicks off on Wednesday 25 February 2026 at 17:30 UK time.
Form
Al Wahda FC (all games): 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al Wahda FC at home: 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ajman have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Ajman away from home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Al Wahda FC against 1.40 for Ajman. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 8 H2H matches in our data, Al Wahda FC edge it 4 wins to 3, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 17 Aug 2025, ended Al Wahda FC 2–0 Ajman — a Al Wahda FC win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Al Wahda FC — key trading statistics (last 42 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Ajman — key trading statistics (last 42 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Wahda FC 55% versus Ajman 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wahda FC 57% | Ajman 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wahda FC 1.65 xG and Ajman 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wahda FC attack 1.135 / defence 0.860 | Ajman attack 1.158 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 1.518. Data: built from Al Wahda FC's last 42 games and Ajman's last 43.
Result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 41% | Draw 24% | Ajman 35%. Fair-value odds: Al Wahda FC 2.43 | Draw 4.25 | Ajman 2.83. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.65 / 1.51) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Wahda FC at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Wahda FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.16 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al Wahda FC's last 10 home games and Ajman's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al Wahda FC 60% (last 10 home games) | Ajman 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wahda FC vs Ajman | Competition: Pro League, matchday 18 | Venue: Al Nahyan Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 25 February 2026 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 41% | Draw 24% | Ajman 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Al Wahda FC 1.65 / Ajman 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wahda FC attack 1.135 / def 0.860 | Ajman attack 1.158 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.329 / away 1.518 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Al Wahda FC xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Ajman xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Wahda FC vs Ajman FAQs
What time does Al Wahda FC vs Ajman kick off?
Al Wahda FC vs Ajman kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Wednesday 25 February 2026 at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wahda FC vs Ajman?
Al Wahda FC 2 - 0 Ajman.
Where is Al Wahda FC vs Ajman being played?
The match is being played at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What competition is Al Wahda FC vs Ajman part of?
Al Wahda FC vs Ajman is a Pro League fixture (matchday 18) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Wahda FC vs Ajman?
Our statistical model gives Al Wahda FC a 41% chance of winning, Ajman a 35% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wahda FC vs Ajman?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Al Wahda FC and Ajman will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al Wahda FC vs Ajman have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al Wahda FC's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Ajman's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. Flip it around — Ajman's attack (1.16x) against Al Wahda FC's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from Al Wahda FC's last 42 games and Ajman's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
41%
2.43
24%
4.25
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Al Wahda FC xG
Total xG
3.16
1.51
Ajman xG
2.43
41%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
22%
4.53
19%
5.19
Win to Nil
9%
11.02
7%
14.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.6 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Wahda FC vs Ajman Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wahda FC vs Ajman?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Al Wahda FC and Ajman expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Al Wahda FC and 1.51 for Ajman, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wahda FC vs Ajman?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Wahda FC's recent record stands at 21W 15D 6L from 42 games, a 1.86 PPG return, with D-D-W-D-L in the last five.
Ajman, meanwhile, have gone 16W 6D 20L across 42 games — 1.29 PPG, with D-L-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al Wahda FC by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ajman heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al Wahda FC have managed 11W 7D 2L from their last 20 home games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ajman's away record stands at 7W 3D 10L across their last 20 away games, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Wahda FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Wahda FC are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Ajman are on 1.40 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Defensively: Al Wahda FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wahda FC
Blended
Ajman
Blended
Al Wahda FC (Home) vs Ajman (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Wahda FC
Blended
Ajman
Blended
❓ Al Wahda FC vs Ajman Form FAQs
What form are Al Wahda FC and Ajman in coming into this match?
Al Wahda FC have gone 21W 15D 6L in their last 42 games (1.86 PPG), while Ajman have gone 16W 6D 20L in their last 42 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wahda FC at home or Ajman away?
Al Wahda FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wahda FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Ajman away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Al Wahda FC or Ajman been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Wahda FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Ajman in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 14 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Wahda FC have gone 2W 0D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Ajman — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al Wahda FC
1
Draws
4
Ajman
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Wahda FC vs Ajman H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Ajman?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Wahda FC have won 5, Ajman have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Al Wahda FC and Ajman last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 August 2026: Al Wahda FC 2-3 Ajman.
Who has won more matches between Al Wahda FC and Ajman?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Wahda FC 65%, Ajman 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Al Wahda FC and 50% for Ajman. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ajman in 35%; Ajman in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wahda FC home games / Ajman away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Wahda FC vs Ajman Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Wahda FC and Ajman matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Al Wahda FC's recent matches and 40% of Ajman's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al Wahda FC and Ajman matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Al Wahda FC's matches and 50% of Ajman's.
Do Al Wahda FC and Ajman matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Al Wahda FC's recent matches and 65% of Ajman's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Wahda FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Ajman.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wahda FC beat Ajman 2-0 at Al Nahyan Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wahda FC 1.65 xG and Ajman 1.51 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Ajman landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wahda FC attack 1.14 / defence 0.86 against Ajman attack 1.16 / defence 1.09, drawn from 42/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wahda FC 41% | Draw 24% | Ajman 35%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wahda FC 57%, Ajman 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ajman's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Ajman (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.