Al-Jazira 1-2 Al-Wasl FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Jazira at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al-Jazira face Al-Wasl FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Jazira host Al-Wasl FC at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium in Pro League (matchday 25). Kick-off is Monday 11 May 2026 at 18:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Al-Jazira — last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Al-Jazira have gone 7W 0D 3L in their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Across their last 10 games, Al-Wasl FC have recorded 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Al-Wasl FC have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Jazira 1.90 PPG, Al-Wasl FC 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 8 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Al-Jazira, 4 for Al-Wasl FC and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 17 Jan 2026, ended Al-Jazira 0–1 Al-Wasl FC — a Al-Wasl FC win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al-Jazira in-play and half-time data (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Al-Wasl FC in-play and half-time data (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Jazira 56% versus Al-Wasl FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Jazira 56% | Al-Wasl FC 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Jazira 2.15 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Jazira attack 1.338 / defence 0.971 | Al-Wasl FC attack 1.052 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.446. Al-Jazira carry an above-average attack rating of 1.338 — their 2.15 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Al-Jazira's last 50 games and Al-Wasl FC's last 50.
Result probabilities: Al-Jazira 52% | Draw 22% | Al-Wasl FC 25%. Fair-value odds: Al-Jazira 1.92 | Draw 4.45 | Al-Wasl FC 3.94. Al-Jazira hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS Yes probability 69% | Total xG 3.63. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.63 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% — both xG figures (2.15 / 1.48) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Jazira at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Jazira offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.63 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Jazira's last 10 home games and Al-Wasl FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Jazira 40% (last 10 home games) | Al-Wasl FC 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC | Competition: Pro League, matchday 25 | Venue: Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 11 May 2026 at 18:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Jazira 52% | Draw 22% | Al-Wasl FC 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% (Under 30%) | BTTS Yes 69% (No 31%) | xG Al-Jazira 2.15 / Al-Wasl FC 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Jazira attack 1.338 / def 0.971 | Al-Wasl FC attack 1.052 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.446 • Poisson stance: Al-Jazira (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
Al-Jazira xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Al-Wasl FC xG
69%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC FAQs
What time does Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC kick off?
Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC kicked off at 18:45 UK time on Monday 11 May 2026 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC?
Al-Jazira 1 - 2 Al-Wasl FC.
Where is Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC being played?
The match is being played at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What competition is Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC part of?
Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC is a Pro League fixture (matchday 25) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Jazira a 52% chance of winning, Al-Wasl FC a 25% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Jazira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Al-Jazira and Al-Wasl FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Jazira's attack at 1.34x the league average against Al-Wasl FC's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 2.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Wasl FC's attack versus Al-Jazira's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Jazira's last 50 games and Al-Wasl FC's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 2-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Jazira Win
52%
1.92
22%
4.45
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
Al-Jazira xG
Total xG
3.63
1.48
Al-Wasl FC xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.23
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
12%
8.59
Win to Nil
12%
8.40
3%
33.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 8.4 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.5 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Al-Jazira and Al-Wasl FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Al-Jazira and 1.48 for Al-Wasl FC, a combined total of 3.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, Al-Jazira have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 22W 12D 16L record — W-L-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Al-Wasl FC's form line: 25W 13D 12L from 50 games, 1.76 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Jazira on 1.56 PPG, Al-Wasl FC on 1.76. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Jazira have posted 1.75 PPG from their last 24 home games (13W 3D 8L).
On the road, Al-Wasl FC have gone 9W 6D 9L from their last 24 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Al-Jazira are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Al-Wasl FC are on 1.72 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Wasl FC in 60%.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Jazira
Blended
Al-Wasl FC
Blended
Al-Jazira (Home) vs Al-Wasl FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Jazira
Blended
Al-Wasl FC
Blended
❓ Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC Form FAQs
What form are Al-Jazira and Al-Wasl FC in coming into this match?
Al-Jazira have gone 22W 12D 16L in their last 50 games (1.56 PPG), while Al-Wasl FC have gone 25W 13D 12L in their last 50 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Jazira at home or Al-Wasl FC away?
Al-Jazira's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Jazira at home: 1.75 PPG; Al-Wasl FC away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Al-Jazira or Al-Wasl FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Jazira have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Al-Wasl FC in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2022. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 7 Apr 2025, when Al-Wasl FC won Al-Jazira 0-5 Al-Wasl FC.
Al-Jazira's record when hosting Al-Wasl FC specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Al-Jazira
2
Draws
5
Al-Wasl FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Al-Wasl FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Jazira have won 3, Al-Wasl FC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Jazira and Al-Wasl FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: Al-Jazira 2-1 Al-Wasl FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Jazira and Al-Wasl FC?
Al-Wasl FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Al-Wasl FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Jazira 42%, Al-Wasl FC 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Al-Jazira and 67% for Al-Wasl FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Jazira keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Al-Jazira have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Jazira home games / Al-Wasl FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Jazira and Al-Wasl FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Al-Jazira's recent matches and 67% of Al-Wasl FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al-Jazira and Al-Wasl FC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Al-Jazira's matches and 67% of Al-Wasl FC's.
Do Al-Jazira and Al-Wasl FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Al-Jazira's recent matches and 83% of Al-Wasl FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Wasl FC defy the odds to beat Al-Jazira 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Wasl FC beat Al-Jazira 1-2 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Jazira 2.15 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.48 xG, a combined 3.63. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al-Jazira fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Jazira attack 1.34 / defence 0.97 against Al-Wasl FC attack 1.05 / defence 1.10, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Jazira 52% | Draw 22% | Al-Wasl FC 25%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Al-Wasl FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Jazira 56%, Al-Wasl FC 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Jazira's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Jazira 1.56 PPG, Al-Wasl FC 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Wasl FC win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.