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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model rates Al Wahda FC at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Wahda FC vs Al-Wasl FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 24 as Al Wahda FC welcome Al-Wasl FC to Al Nahyan Stadium. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 6 May 2026 at 15:05 UTC.

Form Guide

Al Wahda FC — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al Wahda FC's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Al Nahyan Stadium this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Al Wahda FC are significantly better at Al Nahyan Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Wasl FC have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Wasl FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Wasl FC have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Al Wahda FC) versus 1.40 (Al-Wasl FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Al Wahda FC, 1 for Al-Wasl FC and 6 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Jan 2026, ended 0–1 with Al-Wasl FC winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Al Wahda FC in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

Al-Wasl FC in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Wahda FC 53% versus Al-Wasl FC 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wahda FC 53% | Al-Wasl FC 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wahda FC 1.57 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wahda FC attack 1.000 / defence 0.880 | Al-Wasl FC attack 0.939 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.423. Data: 49 Al Wahda FC games / 49 Al-Wasl FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 46% | Draw 27% | Al-Wasl FC 28%. Fair-value odds: Al Wahda FC 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Wasl FC 3.57. Al Wahda FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Wahda FC at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Wahda FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Wahda FC 50% | Al-Wasl FC 70% BTTS from recent games.

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