Al-Ittihad Kalba 0-0 Khorfakkan – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Khorfakkan at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Khorfakkan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium plays host to Al-Ittihad Kalba versus Khorfakkan in Pro League (matchday 24). Kick-off: Tuesday 5 May 2026 at 18:45 UK time.
Current Form
Al-Ittihad Kalba's record over their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Al-Ittihad Kalba have posted 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Khorfakkan have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L W D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Khorfakkan have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Khorfakkan arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 9 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Al-Ittihad Kalba, 3 for Khorfakkan and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.9 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 24 Sep 2025, ended Al-Ittihad Kalba 4–2 Khorfakkan — a Al-Ittihad Kalba win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.9 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Al-Ittihad Kalba half-time and goal-timing data (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Khorfakkan half-time and goal-timing data (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ittihad Kalba 67% and Khorfakkan 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad Kalba 65% | Khorfakkan 63%). Note also that Khorfakkan surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Al-Ittihad Kalba recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.42 xG and Khorfakkan 1.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.891 / defence 1.193 | Khorfakkan attack 1.133 / defence 1.101. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.439. Data: built from Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 49 games and Khorfakkan's last 49.
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 28% | Draw 22% | Khorfakkan 50%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad Kalba 3.56 | Draw 4.47 | Khorfakkan 2.02. Khorfakkan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.42 / 1.94) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Khorfakkan are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Khorfakkan if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.37 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 10 home games and Khorfakkan's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Ittihad Kalba 90% (last 10 home games) | Khorfakkan 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Khorfakkan | Competition: Pro League, matchday 24 | Venue: Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 5 May 2026 at 18:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 28% | Draw 22% | Khorfakkan 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% (Under 35%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.42 / Khorfakkan 1.94 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.891 / def 1.193 | Khorfakkan attack 1.133 / def 1.101 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.439 • Poisson stance: Khorfakkan (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Expected Goals
1.94
Khorfakkan xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Khorfakkan FAQs
What time does Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Khorfakkan kick off?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Khorfakkan kicked off at 18:45 UK time on Tuesday 5 May 2026 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Khorfakkan?
Al-Ittihad Kalba 0 - 0 Khorfakkan.
Where is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Khorfakkan being played?
The match is being played at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Khorfakkan part of?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Khorfakkan is a Pro League fixture (matchday 24) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Khorfakkan?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad Kalba a 28% chance of winning, Khorfakkan a 50% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Khorfakkan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Khorfakkan?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Al-Ittihad Kalba and Khorfakkan will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Khorfakkan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al-Ittihad Kalba's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Khorfakkan's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. Flip it around — Khorfakkan's attack (1.13x) against Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.94.
These ratings are built from Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 49 games and Khorfakkan's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Khorfakkan Win
28%
3.56
22%
4.47
50%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
2 – 1
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Total xG
3.37
1.94
Khorfakkan xG
3.56
28%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
2.02
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.88
Clean Sheet
14%
6.99
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
4%
24.90
12%
8.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.5 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Khorfakkan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Khorfakkan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Khorfakkan expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 1.94 for Khorfakkan, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Khorfakkan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Ittihad Kalba's recent record stands at 13W 16D 20L from 49 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-L in the last five.
Khorfakkan, meanwhile, have gone 15W 13D 21L across 49 games — 1.18 PPG, with D-L-W-D-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Al-Ittihad Kalba against 1.18 for Khorfakkan. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Ittihad Kalba have managed 6W 8D 10L from their last 24 home games — 1.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Khorfakkan's away record stands at 9W 3D 12L across their last 24 away games, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Ittihad Kalba are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Khorfakkan are on 1.51 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad Kalba have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Khorfakkan in 65%.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
Khorfakkan
Blended
Al-Ittihad Kalba (Home) vs Khorfakkan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
Khorfakkan
Blended
❓ Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Khorfakkan Form FAQs
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Khorfakkan in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 13W 16D 20L in their last 49 games (1.12 PPG), while Khorfakkan have gone 15W 13D 21L in their last 49 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home or Khorfakkan away?
Khorfakkan's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home: 1.08 PPG; Khorfakkan away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Khorfakkan, the earliest from December 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 5 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 0W 3D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Khorfakkan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Al-Ittihad Kalba
4
Draws
3
Khorfakkan
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Khorfakkan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Khorfakkan?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 3, Khorfakkan have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad Kalba and Khorfakkan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 May 2026: Al-Ittihad Kalba 0-0 Khorfakkan.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Ittihad Kalba see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad Kalba 67%, Khorfakkan 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 75% for Khorfakkan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad Kalba home games / Khorfakkan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Khorfakkan Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Ittihad Kalba and Khorfakkan matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's games and 62% of Khorfakkan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Khorfakkan matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's matches and 75% of Khorfakkan's.
Do Al-Ittihad Kalba and Khorfakkan matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 58% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's recent matches and 79% of Khorfakkan's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al-Ittihad Kalba's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 24, as Al-Ittihad Kalba and Khorfakkan drew 0-0 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.42 xG and Khorfakkan 1.94 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Ittihad Kalba fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Khorfakkan landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.89 / defence 1.19 against Khorfakkan attack 1.13 / defence 1.10, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad Kalba 28% | Draw 22% | Khorfakkan 50%, with Khorfakkan to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad Kalba 65%, Khorfakkan 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Khorfakkan's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.12 PPG, Khorfakkan 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.