Sharjah FC 0-5 Al Ain – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al Ain (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sharjah FC face Al Ain.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Al Ain travel to Sharjah Stadium to take on Sharjah FC. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 6 May 2026, 17:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Sharjah FC have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sharjah Stadium, Sharjah FC have gone 4W 0D 6L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al Ain — All Games: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al Ain, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Ain away from home this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 away games — 2.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Al Ain's 2.80 PPG return is 1.70 points per game ahead of Sharjah FC's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The previous 9 encounters between these sides heavily favour Al Ain, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for Sharjah FC.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Jan 2026, ended 0–1 with Al Ain winning.
It is worth noting that Al Ain have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Sharjah FC in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Al Ain in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sharjah FC 49% versus Al Ain 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sharjah FC 55% | Al Ain 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sharjah FC 1.11 xG and Al Ain 1.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sharjah FC attack 0.978 / defence 1.138 | Al Ain attack 1.209 / defence 0.781. League average goals — home 1.460 / away 1.446. Al Ain's defence strength of 0.781 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al Ain have an above-average attack strength of 1.209 — the away xG of 1.99 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 49 Sharjah FC games / 49 Al Ain games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sharjah FC 20% | Draw 23% | Al Ain 57%. Fair-value odds: Sharjah FC 5.00 | Draw 4.35 | Al Ain 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Al Ain (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Ain are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.11 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Sharjah FC 60% | Al Ain 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sharjah FC vs Al Ain | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Sharjah Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 6 May 2026, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sharjah FC 20% | Draw 23% | Al Ain 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 59% | xG Sharjah FC 1.11 / Al Ain 1.99 • Poisson strength factors: Sharjah FC attack 0.978 / def 1.138 | Al Ain attack 1.209 / def 0.781 | league avg home 1.460 / away 1.446 • Poisson stance: Al Ain (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Sharjah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.99
Al Ain xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sharjah FC vs Al Ain kick off?
Sharjah FC vs Al Ain kicked off at 17:45 on Wednesday 6 May 2026 at Sharjah Stadium.
What was the final score in Sharjah FC vs Al Ain?
Sharjah FC 0 - 5 Al Ain.
Where is Sharjah FC vs Al Ain being played?
The match is being played at Sharjah Stadium.
What competition is Sharjah FC vs Al Ain part of?
Sharjah FC vs Al Ain is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Sharjah FC vs Al Ain?
Our statistical model gives Sharjah FC a 20% chance of winning, Al Ain a 57% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al Ain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sharjah FC vs Al Ain?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Sharjah FC and Al Ain will score (BTTS).
Will Sharjah FC vs Al Ain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al Ain?
Record (9 meetings): Sharjah FC 1W | Draws 4 | Al Ain 4W.
What form are Sharjah FC and Al Ain in?
Sharjah FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Al Ain (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sharjah FC's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Al Ain's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. The same calculation in reverse, Al Ain's attack versus Sharjah FC's defence, projects 1.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Ain Win
20%
4.94
23%
4.41
57%
1.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Sharjah FC xG
Total xG
3.11
1.99
Al Ain xG
4.94
20%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
1.75
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
14%
7.32
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
3%
36.18
19%
5.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sharjah FC vs Al Ain?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Sharjah FC and Al Ain expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Sharjah FC and 1.99 for Al Ain, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Sharjah FC vs Al Ain?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 49 outings, Sharjah FC have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 23W 7D 19L record — L-D-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Ain's form line: 30W 13D 6L from 49 games, 2.10 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Al Ain is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al Ain are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sharjah FC.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sharjah FC have posted 1.67 PPG from 24 outings (13W 1D 10L).
On the road, Al Ain have gone 15W 5D 4L from 24 away games — 2.08 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Ain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sharjah FC are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Al Ain are on 2.12 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Al Ain in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sharjah FC
Blended
Al Ain
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sharjah FC and Al Ain in coming into this match?
Sharjah FC have gone 23W 7D 19L in their last 49 games (1.55 PPG), while Al Ain have gone 30W 13D 6L in their last 49 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sharjah FC at home or Al Ain away?
Al Ain's away record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sharjah FC at home: 1.67 PPG; Al Ain away: 2.08 PPG.
Have Sharjah FC or Al Ain been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Al Ain in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 6 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al Ain have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 May 2026, when Al Ain won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sharjah FC's record when hosting Al Ain specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Sharjah FC
4
Draws
5
Al Ain
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al Ain?
From 10 meetings on record, Sharjah FC have won 1, Al Ain have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sharjah FC and Al Ain last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2026, when Sharjah FC 0-5 Al Ain.
Who has won more matches between Sharjah FC and Al Ain?
Al Ain have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Al Ain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sharjah FC 38%, Al Ain 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Sharjah FC and 67% for Al Ain. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sharjah FC keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Al Ain in 38%; Sharjah FC have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sharjah FC home games / Al Ain away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sharjah FC play Al Ain?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Sharjah FC's recent matches and 58% of Al Ain's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sharjah FC vs Al Ain usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Sharjah FC's matches and 67% of Al Ain's.
Do Sharjah FC and Al Ain tend to score early?
Sharjah FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al Ain in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Ain run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Sharjah FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Ain beat Sharjah FC 0-5 at Sharjah Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 1.11 xG and Al Ain 1.99 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Sharjah FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Al Ain outscored their 1.99 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 0.98 / defence 1.14 against Al Ain attack 1.21 / defence 0.78, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 20% | Draw 23% | Al Ain 57%, with Al Ain to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sharjah FC 55%, Al Ain 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sharjah FC's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Ain's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Ain arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.55. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Ain (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.