Al Bataeh 1-4 Al-Wasl FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Wasl FC (63%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Bataeh face Al-Wasl FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Bataeh and Al-Wasl FC meet at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Monday 6 May 2024 at 17:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Bataeh have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al Bataeh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Bataeh's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Wasl FC (all games): 9W 1D 0L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 2.80 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Wasl FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Wasl FC away from home this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 away games — 2.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 3.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Al-Wasl FC are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (2.80 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Al Bataeh register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Al-Wasl FC in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Al-Wasl FC, who have claimed 3 wins from 3 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2023, ended 1–4 with Al-Wasl FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Wasl FC have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Al Bataeh half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Al-Wasl FC half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Bataeh 64% and Al-Wasl FC 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Bataeh 71% | Al-Wasl FC 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Bataeh 1.30 xG and Al-Wasl FC 2.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Bataeh attack 1.062 / defence 1.146 | Al-Wasl FC attack 1.297 / defence 0.798. League average goals — home 1.532 / away 1.683. Al-Wasl FC's defence strength of 0.798 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Wasl FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.297 — the away xG of 2.50 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 45 Al Bataeh games / 46 Al-Wasl FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Bataeh 18% | Draw 19% | Al-Wasl FC 63%. Fair-value odds: Al Bataeh 5.56 | Draw 5.26 | Al-Wasl FC 1.59. The model has a clear lean to Al-Wasl FC (63%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.80. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.80 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.30 / 2.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Wasl FC are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.80 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Al Bataeh 80% | Al-Wasl FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Bataeh vs Al-Wasl FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 6 May 2024, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Bataeh 18% | Draw 19% | Al-Wasl FC 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 67% | xG Al Bataeh 1.30 / Al-Wasl FC 2.50 • Poisson strength factors: Al Bataeh attack 1.062 / def 1.146 | Al-Wasl FC attack 1.297 / def 0.798 | league avg home 1.532 / away 1.683 • Poisson stance: Al-Wasl FC (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Al Bataeh xG
Expected Goals
2.50
Al-Wasl FC xG
67%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Bataeh vs Al-Wasl FC kick off?
Al Bataeh vs Al-Wasl FC kicked off at 17:45 on Monday 6 May 2024 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Bataeh vs Al-Wasl FC?
Al Bataeh 1 - 4 Al-Wasl FC.
Where is Al Bataeh vs Al-Wasl FC being played?
The match is being played at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What competition is Al Bataeh vs Al-Wasl FC part of?
Al Bataeh vs Al-Wasl FC is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Bataeh vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Bataeh a 18% chance of winning, Al-Wasl FC a 63% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Al-Wasl FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Bataeh vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Al Bataeh and Al-Wasl FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Bataeh vs Al-Wasl FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Al-Wasl FC?
Record (3 meetings): Al Bataeh 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Wasl FC 3W.
What form are Al Bataeh and Al-Wasl FC in?
Al Bataeh (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Al-Wasl FC (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al Bataeh's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Al-Wasl FC's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. Flip it around — Al-Wasl FC's attack (1.30x) against Al Bataeh's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 2.50.
These ratings are built from 45/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 9.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.2%), 1-3 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Wasl FC Win
18%
5.55
19%
5.38
63%
1.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
7.6%
Away win
1 – 1
7.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Al Bataeh xG
Total xG
3.80
2.50
Al-Wasl FC xG
5.55
18%
Home win
5.38
19%
Draw
1.58
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.03
Clean Sheet
8%
12.21
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
1%
67.70
17%
5.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 5.6 | 7.0 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 1.8 |
| 1 | 2.9 | 7.3 | 9.1 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 2.4 |
| 2 | 1.9 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Bataeh vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Al Bataeh and Al-Wasl FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Al Bataeh and 2.50 for Al-Wasl FC, a combined total of 3.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Bataeh vs Al-Wasl FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 45 outings, Al Bataeh have picked up 1.04 PPG on a 12W 11D 22L record — L-W-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al Bataeh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Wasl FC's form line: 29W 11D 5L from 45 games, 2.18 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D. The sample for Al-Wasl FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Wasl FC are the form team by 1.14 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Bataeh.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al Bataeh have posted 0.91 PPG from 22 outings (4W 8D 10L).
On the road, Al-Wasl FC have gone 14W 6D 2L from 22 away games — 2.18 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Wasl FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Bataeh are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.96 conceded per game recently; Al-Wasl FC are on 2.27 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Bataeh have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Al-Wasl FC in 64%.
Last 45 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Bataeh
Blended
Al-Wasl FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Bataeh and Al-Wasl FC in coming into this match?
Al Bataeh have gone 12W 11D 22L in their last 45 games (1.04 PPG), while Al-Wasl FC have gone 29W 11D 5L in their last 45 (2.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Bataeh at home or Al-Wasl FC away?
Al-Wasl FC's away record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Bataeh at home: 0.91 PPG; Al-Wasl FC away: 2.18 PPG.
Have Al Bataeh or Al-Wasl FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Bataeh have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Al-Wasl FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Al-Wasl FC have won the last 8 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Wasl FC won 4-1 on 2 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Bataeh have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al-Wasl FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Al Bataeh
0
Draws
8
Al-Wasl FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Al-Wasl FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Bataeh have won 0, Al-Wasl FC have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Bataeh and Al-Wasl FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Al-Wasl FC 1-0 Al Bataeh.
Who has won more matches between Al Bataeh and Al-Wasl FC?
Al-Wasl FC have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Bataeh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Wasl FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 68% for Al Bataeh, 68% for Al-Wasl FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Al Bataeh and 64% for Al-Wasl FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Bataeh have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Bataeh home games / Al-Wasl FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Bataeh play Al-Wasl FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Al Bataeh's games and 68% of Al-Wasl FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Bataeh vs Al-Wasl FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Al Bataeh's matches and 64% of Al-Wasl FC's.
Do Al Bataeh and Al-Wasl FC tend to score early?
Al Bataeh have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Al-Wasl FC in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Wasl FC run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Al Bataeh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Wasl FC beat Al Bataeh 1-4 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Bataeh 1.30 xG and Al-Wasl FC 2.50 xG, a combined 3.80. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Al-Wasl FC outscored their 2.50 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Bataeh attack 1.06 / defence 1.15 against Al-Wasl FC attack 1.30 / defence 0.80, drawn from 45/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Bataeh 18% | Draw 19% | Al-Wasl FC 63%, with Al-Wasl FC to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Bataeh 71%, Al-Wasl FC 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Bataeh's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Wasl FC arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 1.04. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Wasl FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.36 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.