Ajman 2-0 Al Bataeh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Bataeh at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ajman vs Al Bataeh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ajman host Al Bataeh at Ajman Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 10 May 2024 at 15:10 UTC.
Form Guide
Ajman — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ajman, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ajman at Ajman Stadium this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.50 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Ajman Stadium this season.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Bataeh have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al Bataeh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Bataeh's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ajman 1.20 PPG, Al Bataeh 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Ajman, 0 for Al Bataeh and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Ajman in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Al Bataeh in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ajman 61% and Al Bataeh 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Ajman 59% | Al Bataeh 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajman 1.24 xG and Al Bataeh 2.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajman attack 0.877 / defence 1.273 | Al Bataeh attack 1.055 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.532 / away 1.674. Data: 46 Ajman games / 46 Al Bataeh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajman 20% | Draw 20% | Al Bataeh 60%. Fair-value odds: Ajman 5.00 | Draw 5.00 | Al Bataeh 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Al Bataeh (60%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.24 / 2.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Bataeh at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.49 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Ajman 50% | Al Bataeh 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajman vs Al Bataeh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Ajman Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 10 May 2024, 15:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajman 20% | Draw 20% | Al Bataeh 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 64% | xG Ajman 1.24 / Al Bataeh 2.25 • Poisson strength factors: Ajman attack 0.877 / def 1.273 | Al Bataeh attack 1.055 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.532 / away 1.674 • Poisson stance: Al Bataeh (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Ajman xG
Expected Goals
2.25
Al Bataeh xG
64%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajman vs Al Bataeh kick off?
Ajman vs Al Bataeh kicked off at 15:10 on Friday 10 May 2024 at Ajman Stadium.
What was the final score in Ajman vs Al Bataeh?
Ajman 2 - 0 Al Bataeh.
Where is Ajman vs Al Bataeh being played?
The match is being played at Ajman Stadium.
What competition is Ajman vs Al Bataeh part of?
Ajman vs Al Bataeh is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Ajman vs Al Bataeh?
Our statistical model gives Ajman a 20% chance of winning, Al Bataeh a 60% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al Bataeh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajman vs Al Bataeh?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Ajman and Al Bataeh will score (BTTS).
Will Ajman vs Al Bataeh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Al Bataeh?
Record (3 meetings): Ajman 1W | Draws 2 | Al Bataeh 0W.
What form are Ajman and Al Bataeh in?
Ajman (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Al Bataeh (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ajman's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Al Bataeh's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. The same calculation in reverse, Al Bataeh's attack versus Ajman's defence, projects 2.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Bataeh Win
20%
4.97
20%
5.08
60%
1.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
0 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Ajman xG
Total xG
3.49
2.25
Al Bataeh xG
4.97
20%
Home win
5.08
20%
Draw
1.66
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
11%
9.48
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
2%
47.13
17%
5.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 6.9 | 7.7 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 5.3 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajman vs Al Bataeh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Ajman and Al Bataeh expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Ajman and 2.25 for Al Bataeh, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajman vs Al Bataeh?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ajman come into this having played 46 games, going 18W 12D 16L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-D. The sample for Ajman is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Bataeh sit at 1.02 PPG from 46 outings (12W 11D 23L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Al Bataeh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ajman carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Al Bataeh — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Ajman's home form reads 8W 5D 9L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Bataeh have taken 1.23 points per game from 22 outings (8W 3D 11L).
The Goals Picture
Ajman are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Al Bataeh are on 1.30 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ajman have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Al Bataeh in 65%.
Last 46 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajman
Blended
Al Bataeh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajman and Al Bataeh in coming into this match?
Ajman have gone 18W 12D 16L in their last 46 games (1.43 PPG), while Al Bataeh have gone 12W 11D 23L in their last 46 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajman at home or Al Bataeh away?
Ajman's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajman at home: 1.32 PPG; Al Bataeh away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ajman and Al Bataeh runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 10 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ajman's record when hosting Al Bataeh specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Ajman
3
Draws
1
Al Bataeh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Al Bataeh?
From 8 meetings on record, Ajman have won 4, Al Bataeh have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ajman and Al Bataeh last play each other?
They last met on 10 March 2026, when Al Bataeh 1-0 Ajman.
Who has won more matches between Ajman and Al Bataeh?
Ajman have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Al Bataeh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ajman 64%, Al Bataeh 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Ajman and 77% for Al Bataeh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajman home games / Al Bataeh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajman play Al Bataeh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Ajman's games and 59% of Al Bataeh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ajman vs Al Bataeh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Ajman's matches and 77% of Al Bataeh's.
Do Ajman and Al Bataeh tend to score early?
Ajman have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Al Bataeh in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ajman cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al Bataeh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajman beat Al Bataeh 2-0 at Ajman Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajman 1.24 xG and Al Bataeh 2.25 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al Bataeh landed 2.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajman attack 0.88 / defence 1.27 against Al Bataeh attack 1.05 / defence 0.92, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajman 20% | Draw 20% | Al Bataeh 60%, with Al Bataeh to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Ajman win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajman 59%, Al Bataeh 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajman's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Bataeh's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajman arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 1.02. Form held, and they took the win. Ajman (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.