Sharjah FC 2-2 Al Bataeh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Bataeh at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sharjah FC vs Al Bataeh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sharjah Stadium plays host to Sharjah FC versus Al Bataeh in Pro League, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Saturday 27 April 2024 at 15:05 UTC.
Current Form
Sharjah FC's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 7D 1L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sharjah FC have posted 3W 5D 2L at Sharjah Stadium — 1.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Bataeh (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al Bataeh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Bataeh's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Sharjah FC register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Al Bataeh in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Sharjah FC 2W, Al Bataeh 0W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2023, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Sharjah FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Al Bataeh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sharjah FC 52% versus Al Bataeh 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sharjah FC 48% | Al Bataeh 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sharjah FC 1.43 xG and Al Bataeh 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sharjah FC attack 1.054 / defence 0.902 | Al Bataeh attack 0.994 / defence 0.848. League average goals — home 1.599 / away 1.758. Data: 45 Sharjah FC games / 44 Al Bataeh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sharjah FC 34% | Draw 26% | Al Bataeh 40%. Fair-value odds: Sharjah FC 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Al Bataeh 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.43 / 1.58) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Bataeh as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Bataeh if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sharjah FC 80% | Al Bataeh 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sharjah FC vs Al Bataeh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Sharjah Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Apr 2024, 15:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sharjah FC 34% | Draw 26% | Al Bataeh 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Sharjah FC 1.43 / Al Bataeh 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Sharjah FC attack 1.054 / def 0.902 | Al Bataeh attack 0.994 / def 0.848 | league avg home 1.599 / away 1.758 • Poisson stance: Al Bataeh (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Sharjah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Al Bataeh xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sharjah FC vs Al Bataeh kick off?
Sharjah FC vs Al Bataeh kicked off at 15:05 on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Sharjah Stadium.
What was the final score in Sharjah FC vs Al Bataeh?
Sharjah FC 2 - 2 Al Bataeh.
Where is Sharjah FC vs Al Bataeh being played?
The match is being played at Sharjah Stadium.
What competition is Sharjah FC vs Al Bataeh part of?
Sharjah FC vs Al Bataeh is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Sharjah FC vs Al Bataeh?
Our statistical model gives Sharjah FC a 34% chance of winning, Al Bataeh a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Bataeh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sharjah FC vs Al Bataeh?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Sharjah FC and Al Bataeh will score (BTTS).
Will Sharjah FC vs Al Bataeh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al Bataeh?
Record (3 meetings): Sharjah FC 2W | Draws 1 | Al Bataeh 0W.
What form are Sharjah FC and Al Bataeh in?
Sharjah FC (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-D-D. Al Bataeh (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sharjah FC's attack at 1.05x the league average against Al Bataeh's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Bataeh's attack (0.99x) against Sharjah FC's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.58.
These ratings are built from 45/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Bataeh Win
34%
2.96
26%
3.83
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Sharjah FC xG
Total xG
3.01
1.58
Al Bataeh xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
21%
4.84
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
7%
14.35
10%
10.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.8 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.1 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.0 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sharjah FC vs Al Bataeh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Sharjah FC and Al Bataeh expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Sharjah FC and 1.58 for Al Bataeh, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Sharjah FC vs Al Bataeh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 44 outings, Sharjah FC have picked up 1.59 PPG on a 18W 16D 10L record — L-D-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Bataeh's form line: 12W 10D 22L from 44 games, 1.05 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-L. The sample for Al Bataeh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sharjah FC are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Bataeh.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sharjah FC have posted 1.29 PPG from 21 outings (6W 9D 6L).
On the road, Al Bataeh have gone 8W 2D 11L from 21 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sharjah FC are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Al Bataeh are on 1.30 scored and 1.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Bataeh in 64%.
Last 44 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sharjah FC
Blended
Al Bataeh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sharjah FC and Al Bataeh in coming into this match?
Sharjah FC have gone 18W 16D 10L in their last 44 games (1.59 PPG), while Al Bataeh have gone 12W 10D 22L in their last 44 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sharjah FC at home or Al Bataeh away?
Sharjah FC's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sharjah FC at home: 1.29 PPG; Al Bataeh away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Sharjah FC or Al Bataeh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Al Bataeh in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sharjah FC won 3-0 on 18 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sharjah FC have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al Bataeh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Sharjah FC
3
Draws
2
Al Bataeh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al Bataeh?
From 8 meetings on record, Sharjah FC have won 3, Al Bataeh have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sharjah FC and Al Bataeh last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Al Bataeh 0-0 Sharjah FC.
Who has won more matches between Sharjah FC and Al Bataeh?
Sharjah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Al Bataeh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sharjah FC 62%, Al Bataeh 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for Sharjah FC and 76% for Al Bataeh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sharjah FC home games / Al Bataeh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sharjah FC play Al Bataeh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Sharjah FC's games and 57% of Al Bataeh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sharjah FC vs Al Bataeh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Sharjah FC's matches and 76% of Al Bataeh's.
Do Sharjah FC and Al Bataeh tend to score early?
Sharjah FC have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Al Bataeh in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sharjah FC and Al Bataeh share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sharjah Stadium, Regular Season - 21, as Sharjah FC and Al Bataeh drew 2-2 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 1.43 xG and Al Bataeh 1.58 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 1.05 / defence 0.90 against Al Bataeh attack 0.99 / defence 0.85, drawn from 45/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 34% | Draw 26% | Al Bataeh 40%, with Al Bataeh to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sharjah FC 48%, Al Bataeh 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sharjah FC's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Bataeh's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.