Al-Wasl FC 1-4 Al Wahda FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Wasl FC at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Wasl FC vs Al Wahda FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 23 as Al-Wasl FC welcome Al Wahda FC to Zabeel Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 13 May 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Wasl FC have gone 9W 1D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.80 PPG return. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Wasl FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Wasl FC at Zabeel Stadium this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al Wahda FC — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al Wahda FC have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On current form, Al-Wasl FC have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.80 vs 1.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al-Wasl FC, 1 for Al Wahda FC and 4 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Dec 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al-Wasl FC trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Al Wahda FC trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Wasl FC 66% and Al Wahda FC 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Wasl FC 68% | Al Wahda FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Wasl FC 1.45 xG and Al Wahda FC 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Wasl FC attack 1.184 / defence 0.660 | Al Wahda FC attack 0.815 / defence 0.773. League average goals — home 1.580 / away 1.700. Al Wahda FC's defence strength of 0.773 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Wasl FC's defence rating of 0.660 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Al-Wasl FC games / 48 Al Wahda FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 49% | Draw 27% | Al Wahda FC 24%. Fair-value odds: Al-Wasl FC 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Al Wahda FC 4.17. Al-Wasl FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Wasl FC as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Wasl FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al-Wasl FC 60% | Al Wahda FC 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Wasl FC vs Al Wahda FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Zabeel Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 13 May 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 49% | Draw 27% | Al Wahda FC 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG Al-Wasl FC 1.45 / Al Wahda FC 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Wasl FC attack 1.184 / def 0.660 | Al Wahda FC attack 0.815 / def 0.773 | league avg home 1.580 / away 1.700 • Poisson stance: Al-Wasl FC (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Al-Wasl FC xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Al Wahda FC xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Wasl FC vs Al Wahda FC kick off?
Al-Wasl FC vs Al Wahda FC kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 13 May 2024 at Zabeel Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Wasl FC vs Al Wahda FC?
Al-Wasl FC 1 - 4 Al Wahda FC.
Where is Al-Wasl FC vs Al Wahda FC being played?
The match is being played at Zabeel Stadium.
What competition is Al-Wasl FC vs Al Wahda FC part of?
Al-Wasl FC vs Al Wahda FC is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Wasl FC vs Al Wahda FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Wasl FC a 49% chance of winning, Al Wahda FC a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Wasl FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Wasl FC vs Al Wahda FC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Al-Wasl FC and Al Wahda FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Wasl FC vs Al Wahda FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Wasl FC and Al Wahda FC?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Wasl FC 0W | Draws 4 | Al Wahda FC 1W.
What form are Al-Wasl FC and Al Wahda FC in?
Al-Wasl FC (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Al Wahda FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Wasl FC's attack rating (1.18) and Al Wahda FC's defence rating (0.77), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Wahda FC's attack versus Al-Wasl FC's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Wasl FC Win
49%
2.02
27%
3.74
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Al-Wasl FC xG
Total xG
2.36
0.91
Al Wahda FC xG
2.02
49%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
24%
4.24
Win to Nil
20%
5.04
6%
17.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 12.5 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.0 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Wasl FC vs Al Wahda FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Al-Wasl FC and Al Wahda FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Al-Wasl FC and 0.91 for Al Wahda FC, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Wasl FC vs Al Wahda FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 47 outings, Al-Wasl FC have picked up 2.17 PPG on a 30W 12D 5L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Wasl FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Wahda FC's form line: 26W 11D 10L from 47 games, 1.89 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-W. The sample for Al Wahda FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Wasl FC on 2.17 PPG, Al Wahda FC on 1.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Wasl FC have posted 2.17 PPG from 23 outings (15W 5D 3L).
On the road, Al Wahda FC have gone 15W 3D 5L from 23 away games — 2.09 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Wasl FC are averaging 2.30 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Al Wahda FC are on 1.79 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Wasl FC have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Wasl FC
Blended
Al Wahda FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Wasl FC and Al Wahda FC in coming into this match?
Al-Wasl FC have gone 30W 12D 5L in their last 47 games (2.17 PPG), while Al Wahda FC have gone 26W 11D 10L in their last 47 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Wasl FC at home or Al Wahda FC away?
Al-Wasl FC's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Wasl FC at home: 2.17 PPG; Al Wahda FC away: 2.09 PPG.
Have Al-Wasl FC or Al Wahda FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Wasl FC have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Al Wahda FC in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 6 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Wasl FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 May 2024, when Al Wahda FC won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Wasl FC's record when hosting Al Wahda FC specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Al-Wasl FC
6
Draws
2
Al Wahda FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Wasl FC and Al Wahda FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Wasl FC have won 2, Al Wahda FC have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Al-Wasl FC and Al Wahda FC last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2026, when Al Wahda FC 2-3 Al-Wasl FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Wasl FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Wasl FC 61%, Al Wahda FC 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Al-Wasl FC) and 48% (Al Wahda FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Wasl FC keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Al Wahda FC in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Wasl FC home games / Al Wahda FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Wasl FC play Al Wahda FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Al-Wasl FC's recent matches and 48% of Al Wahda FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Wasl FC vs Al Wahda FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Al-Wasl FC's matches and 48% of Al Wahda FC's.
Do Al-Wasl FC and Al Wahda FC tend to score early?
Al-Wasl FC have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Al Wahda FC in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Wahda FC run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Al-Wasl FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wahda FC beat Al-Wasl FC 1-4 at Zabeel Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Wasl FC 1.45 xG and Al Wahda FC 0.91 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Al Wahda FC outscored their 0.91 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Wasl FC attack 1.18 / defence 0.66 against Al Wahda FC attack 0.81 / defence 0.77, drawn from 47/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Wasl FC 49% | Draw 27% | Al Wahda FC 24%, with Al-Wasl FC to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Al Wahda FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Wasl FC 68%, Al Wahda FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Wasl FC 2.17 PPG, Al Wahda FC 1.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Wahda FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Wasl FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.