Hatta SC 0-0 Ajman – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ajman at 76% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hatta SC vs Ajman encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ajman make the trip to Hamdan Bin Rashid Stadium to face Hatta SC in Pro League, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Sunday 5 May 2024 at 15:05 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hatta SC have collected 0.20 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 0W 2D 8L. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hatta SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hatta SC's home record at Hamdan Bin Rashid Stadium: 0W 2D 8L from 10 Pro League appearances (0.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.30 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Ajman (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ajman, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ajman's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Ajman are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Hatta SC 0W, Ajman 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Hatta SC half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Ajman half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hatta SC 50% versus Ajman 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hatta SC 60% | Ajman 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatta SC 0.85 xG and Ajman 2.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatta SC attack 0.533 / defence 1.359 | Ajman attack 1.124 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.601 / away 1.766. Hatta SC's attack strength of 0.533 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 20 Hatta SC games / 45 Ajman games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hatta SC 9% | Draw 16% | Ajman 76%. Fair-value odds: Hatta SC 11.11 | Draw 6.25 | Ajman 1.32. The model has a clear lean to Ajman (76%) — a 67pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ajman at 76% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.54 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hatta SC 30% | Ajman 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatta SC vs Ajman | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Hamdan Bin Rashid Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024, 15:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatta SC 9% | Draw 16% | Ajman 76% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 54% | xG Hatta SC 0.85 / Ajman 2.70 • Poisson strength factors: Hatta SC attack 0.533 / def 1.359 | Ajman attack 1.124 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.601 / away 1.766 • Poisson stance: Ajman (76%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Hatta SC xG
Expected Goals
2.70
Ajman xG
54%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hatta SC vs Ajman kick off?
Hatta SC vs Ajman kicked off at 15:05 on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Hamdan Bin Rashid Stadium.
What was the final score in Hatta SC vs Ajman?
Hatta SC 0 - 0 Ajman.
Where is Hatta SC vs Ajman being played?
The match is being played at Hamdan Bin Rashid Stadium.
What competition is Hatta SC vs Ajman part of?
Hatta SC vs Ajman is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Hatta SC vs Ajman?
Our statistical model gives Hatta SC a 9% chance of winning, Ajman a 76% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Ajman the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatta SC vs Ajman?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Hatta SC and Ajman will score (BTTS).
Will Hatta SC vs Ajman have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hatta SC and Ajman?
Record (1 meetings): Hatta SC 0W | Draws 1 | Ajman 0W.
What form are Hatta SC and Ajman in?
Hatta SC (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Ajman (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Hatta SC's attacking strength (0.53x league average) is weighed against Ajman's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.85. Flip it around — Ajman's attack (1.12x) against Hatta SC's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 2.70.
These ratings are built from 20/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 10.5%. Close behind: 0-3 (9.5%), 1-2 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajman Win
9%
11.52
16%
6.45
76%
1.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 3
9.5%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Hatta SC xG
Total xG
3.54
2.70
Ajman xG
11.52
9%
Home win
6.45
16%
Draw
1.32
76%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
7%
14.82
43%
2.33
Win to Nil
1%
170.74
33%
3.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 7.8 | 10.5 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 3.4 |
| 1 | 2.4 | 6.6 | 8.9 | 8.0 | 5.4 | 2.9 |
| 2 | 1.0 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatta SC vs Ajman?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Hatta SC and Ajman expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Hatta SC and 2.70 for Ajman, a combined total of 3.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatta SC vs Ajman?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 76%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hatta SC come into this having played 20 games, going 1W 3D 16L for 0.30 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Hatta SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ajman sit at 1.05 PPG from 20 outings (5W 6D 9L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Ajman is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ajman carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Hatta SC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Hatta SC's home form reads 0W 2D 8L across 10 games on their own ground, a 0.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Ajman have taken 1.60 points per game from 10 outings (4W 4D 2L). That's actually stronger than their 1.05 PPG overall record — Ajman travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajman come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Hatta SC are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.45 conceded per game recently; Ajman are on 1.45 scored and 2.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ajman in 60%.
Last 20 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatta SC
Blended
Ajman
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hatta SC and Ajman in coming into this match?
Hatta SC have gone 1W 3D 16L in their last 20 games (0.30 PPG), while Ajman have gone 5W 6D 9L in their last 20 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatta SC at home or Ajman away?
Ajman's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatta SC at home: 0.20 PPG; Ajman away: 1.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Hatta SC
2
Draws
0
Ajman
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hatta SC and Ajman?
From 2 meetings on record, Hatta SC have won 0, Ajman have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hatta SC and Ajman last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2024, when Hatta SC 0-0 Ajman.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hatta SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hatta SC 30%, Ajman 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Hatta SC and 70% for Ajman. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hatta SC have failed to score in 70% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatta SC home games / Ajman away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hatta SC play Ajman?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 30% of Hatta SC's games and 80% of Ajman's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hatta SC vs Ajman usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Hatta SC's matches and 70% of Ajman's.
Do Hatta SC and Ajman tend to score early?
Hatta SC have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Ajman in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Hatta SC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Hamdan Bin Rashid Stadium, Regular Season - 22, as Hatta SC and Ajman drew 0-0 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatta SC 0.85 xG and Ajman 2.70 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Hatta SC fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Ajman landed 2.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatta SC attack 0.53 / defence 1.36 against Ajman attack 1.12 / defence 0.99, drawn from 20/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatta SC 9% | Draw 16% | Ajman 76%, with Ajman to win its most likely call at 76%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatta SC 60%, Ajman 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatta SC's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ajman's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajman arrived the stronger side — 1.05 PPG against 0.30. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hatta SC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line. Ajman (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.