Under 2.5 Goals Predictions
Fixtures ranked by highest under 2.5 probability — Sunday 17 September 2023
Under 2.5 goals lands when a match produces 2 goals or fewer. Our prediction model sums the probability of every scoreline with 2 goals or fewer — 0–0, 1–0, 1–1, 2–0 and their mirror images. Only fixtures with 55%+ probability are shown.
20 fixtures cleared the bar on Sunday 17 September 2023. FC St. Pauli vs Holstein Kiel sits top on 73% in the 2. Bundesliga. The shortlist runs from 73% down to 58%, so the tail is materially weaker than the top.
Premier League supplies three of the top 10, so the day's profile is concentrated rather than spread evenly.
Of the 20 fixtures on this list that have since finished, twelve landed the under 2.5 goals market — 60%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.
Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
2. Bundesliga · Germany
73%
Serie A · Brazil
71%
La Liga · Spain
69%
Premier League · Ukraine
66%
Premier League · Ukraine
66%
Veikkausliiga · Finland
66%
Süper Lig · Turkey
66%
K League 1 · South-Korea
64%
Premier League · England
62%
Superettan · Sweden
62%
La Liga · Spain
62%
Super League 1 · Greece
61%
Ekstraklasa · Poland
60%
Super League · China
60%
Serie A · Italy
60%
Canadian Premier League · Canada
60%
Bundesliga · Austria
60%
Jupiler Pro League · Belgium
59%
Eliteserien · Norway
59%
Ekstraklasa · Poland
58%
Showing top 20 fixtures by under 2.5 probability (a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.
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Portuguese Football PredictionsUnder 2.5 Goals — common questions
What does the Under 2.5 Goals market mean?
Under 2.5 Goals settles on whether a match finishes with 2 or fewer total goals. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.
How does Fixture360 calculate under 2.5 goals probability?
Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The under 2.5 probability shown here is the probability of 2 or fewer total goals, summed across every scoreline in the model's matrix. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.
How many fixtures qualified for Under 2.5 Goals on Sunday 17 September 2023?
20 fixtures met the criteria, led by FC St. Pauli vs Holstein Kiel at 73% under 2.5 probability.
Which fixtures appear on this page?
Fixtures with a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.
How accurate are these under 2.5 goals predictions?
Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.
Are these predictions betting tips?
No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.