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Under 2.5 Goals Predictions

Fixtures ranked by highest under 2.5 probability — Sunday 7 May 2023

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Under 2.5 goals lands when a match produces 2 goals or fewer. Our prediction model sums the probability of every scoreline with 2 goals or fewer — 0–0, 1–0, 1–1, 2–0 and their mirror images. Only fixtures with 55%+ probability are shown.

20 fixtures cleared the bar on Sunday 7 May 2023. 1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern sits top on 77% in the 2. Bundesliga. The shortlist runs from 77% down to 60%, so the tail is materially weaker than the top.

The shortlist spans nine different competitions, a broad spread rather than one division dominating.

Of the 20 fixtures on this list that have since finished, nine landed the under 2.5 goals market — 45%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.

Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

2. Bundesliga · Germany 77%

Under 2.5 77% BTTS No 71% 1. FC Nürnberg Clean Sheet 57%

Serie A · Italy 75%

✓ Under 2.5 75% ✓ BTTS No 66%

Ligue 1 · France 74%

Under 2.5 74% BTTS No 67%

Primeira Liga · Portugal 74%

Under 2.5 74% ✓ BTTS No 66%

League One · England 74%

✓ Under 2.5 74% ✓ BTTS No 66%

Eredivisie · Netherlands 72%

Under 2.5 72% ✓ BTTS No 62%

Canadian Premier League · Canada 71%

Under 2.5 71% BTTS No 60%

Eliteserien · Norway 71%

✓ Under 2.5 71% ✓ BTTS No 62%

League One · England 68%

Under 2.5 68% BTTS No 61%

#10

Czech Liga · Czech-Republic 67%

✓ Under 2.5 67% ✓ BTTS No 58%

#11

Eliteserien · Norway 67%

✓ Under 2.5 67% BTTS No 57%

#12

Serie A · Brazil 67%

✓ Under 2.5 67% ✓ BTTS No 59%

#13

League One · England 66%

Under 2.5 66% BTTS No 63%

#14

Ekstraklasa · Poland 66%

✓ Under 2.5 66% ✓ BTTS No 57%

#15

Ligue 1 · France 66%

✓ Under 2.5 66% BTTS No 61%

#16

Thai League 1 · Thailand 63%

Under 2.5 63% BTTS No 61%

#17

Serie A · Italy 62%

✓ Under 2.5 62% BTTS No 56%

#18

Superettan · Sweden 61%

Under 2.5 61% BTTS No 57%

#19

Eliteserien · Norway 60%

Under 2.5 60% ✓ BTTS No 55%

#20

League One · England 60%

Under 2.5 60% BTTS No 54%

Showing top 20 fixtures by under 2.5 probability (a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.

Related markets

Low Scoring Both Teams to Score – No Over 2.5 Goals

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Under 2.5 Goals — common questions

What does the Under 2.5 Goals market mean?

Under 2.5 Goals settles on whether a match finishes with 2 or fewer total goals. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.

How does Fixture360 calculate under 2.5 goals probability?

Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The under 2.5 probability shown here is the probability of 2 or fewer total goals, summed across every scoreline in the model's matrix. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.

How many fixtures qualified for Under 2.5 Goals on Sunday 7 May 2023?

20 fixtures met the criteria, led by 1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern at 77% under 2.5 probability.

Which fixtures appear on this page?

Fixtures with a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.

How accurate are these under 2.5 goals predictions?

Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.

Are these predictions betting tips?

No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.