Sukhothai FC 1-2 Lamphun Warrior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sukhothai FC at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 29 as Sukhothai FC welcome Lamphun Warrior to Thung Talay Luang Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 7 May 2023 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Sukhothai FC have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Sukhothai FC at Thung Talay Luang Stadium this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamphun Warrior stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Lamphun Warrior's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sukhothai FC 1.30 PPG, Lamphun Warrior 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Sukhothai FC, 1 for Lamphun Warrior and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2022, ended 1–3 with Lamphun Warrior winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sukhothai FC trading profile (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Lamphun Warrior trading profile (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 29% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (away games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sukhothai FC 46% versus Lamphun Warrior 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sukhothai FC 39% | Lamphun Warrior 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 1.45 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 0.870 / defence 0.964 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.618 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.582 / away 1.185. Data: 28 Sukhothai FC games / 28 Lamphun Warrior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 55% | Draw 28% | Lamphun Warrior 18%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 1.82 | Draw 3.57 | Lamphun Warrior 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Sukhothai FC (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sukhothai FC at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sukhothai FC 40% | Lamphun Warrior 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Thung Talay Luang Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 7 May 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 55% | Draw 28% | Lamphun Warrior 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 39% | xG Sukhothai FC 1.45 / Lamphun Warrior 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Sukhothai FC attack 0.870 / def 0.964 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.618 / def 1.054 | league avg home 1.582 / away 1.185 • Poisson stance: Sukhothai FC (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Sukhothai FC xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Lamphun Warrior xG
39%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior kick off?
Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 7 May 2023 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What was the final score in Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Sukhothai FC 1 - 2 Lamphun Warrior.
Where is Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior being played?
The match is being played at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What competition is Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior part of?
Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our statistical model gives Sukhothai FC a 55% chance of winning, Lamphun Warrior a 18% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sukhothai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Sukhothai FC and Lamphun Warrior will score (BTTS).
Will Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Lamphun Warrior?
Record (1 meetings): Sukhothai FC 0W | Draws 0 | Lamphun Warrior 1W.
What form are Sukhothai FC and Lamphun Warrior in?
Sukhothai FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sukhothai FC's attack at 0.87x the league average against Lamphun Warrior's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lamphun Warrior's attack versus Sukhothai FC's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.4%), 0-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sukhothai FC Win
55%
1.83
28%
3.60
18%
5.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Sukhothai FC xG
Total xG
2.16
0.71
Lamphun Warrior xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
5.65
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
27%
3.72
4%
24.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 8.2 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 11.9 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 8.6 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Sukhothai FC and Lamphun Warrior expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Sukhothai FC and 0.71 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 28 outings, Sukhothai FC have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 8W 10D 10L record — L-W-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Lamphun Warrior's form line: 7W 9D 12L from 28 games, 1.07 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sukhothai FC on 1.21 PPG, Lamphun Warrior on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sukhothai FC have posted 1.57 PPG from 14 outings (6W 4D 4L).
On the road, Lamphun Warrior have gone 2W 4D 8L from 14 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sukhothai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sukhothai FC are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Lamphun Warrior are on 0.79 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Sukhothai FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sukhothai FC
Current Season
Lamphun Warrior
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sukhothai FC and Lamphun Warrior in coming into this match?
Sukhothai FC have gone 8W 10D 10L in their last 28 games (1.21 PPG), while Lamphun Warrior have gone 7W 9D 12L in their last 28 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sukhothai FC at home or Lamphun Warrior away?
Sukhothai FC's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sukhothai FC at home: 1.57 PPG; Lamphun Warrior away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Sukhothai FC or Lamphun Warrior been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sukhothai FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Lamphun Warrior in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sukhothai FC and Lamphun Warrior runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Lamphun Warrior have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Sep 2024, when Sukhothai FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sukhothai FC's record when hosting Lamphun Warrior specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Sukhothai FC
0
Draws
6
Lamphun Warrior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Lamphun Warrior?
From 8 meetings on record, Sukhothai FC have won 2, Lamphun Warrior have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sukhothai FC and Lamphun Warrior last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Lamphun Warrior 3-0 Sukhothai FC.
Who has won more matches between Sukhothai FC and Lamphun Warrior?
Lamphun Warrior have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sukhothai FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Lamphun Warrior tend to start slowly — only 29% of their games have a goal by half-time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Sukhothai FC 29% BTTS, Lamphun Warrior 29%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 43% for Sukhothai FC and 21% for Lamphun Warrior.
On the defensive side: Sukhothai FC keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Sukhothai FC have failed to score in 36% of games; Lamphun Warrior in 64%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sukhothai FC home games / Lamphun Warrior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sukhothai FC play Lamphun Warrior?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Sukhothai FC's recent matches and 29% of Lamphun Warrior's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Sukhothai FC's recent games and 21% of Lamphun Warrior's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sukhothai FC and Lamphun Warrior tend to score early?
Sukhothai FC have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Lamphun Warrior in 29% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lamphun Warrior defy the odds to beat Sukhothai FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamphun Warrior beat Sukhothai FC 1-2 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 1.45 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.71 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Lamphun Warrior outscored their 0.71 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 0.87 / defence 0.96 against Lamphun Warrior attack 0.62 / defence 1.05, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 55% | Draw 28% | Lamphun Warrior 18%, with Sukhothai FC to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Lamphun Warrior win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 39%, Lamphun Warrior 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sukhothai FC 1.21 PPG, Lamphun Warrior 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lamphun Warrior win broke the near-deadlock. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.