Stabaek 1-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Stabaek take on Sarpsborg 08 FF.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Nadderud Stadion plays host to Stabaek versus Sarpsborg 08 FF in Eliteserien (matchday 5). Kick-off: Sunday 7 May 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Stabaek have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Stabaek have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all games): 6W 4D 0L across their last 10 — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W D D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Sarpsborg 08 FF away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Sarpsborg 08 FF arrive in superior form — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Stabaek's last 10 home games and Sarpsborg 08 FF's last 10 away games) — Stabaek have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Stabaek, 2 for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 6 Nov 2021, ended Stabaek 1–4 Sarpsborg 08 FF — a Sarpsborg 08 FF win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Stabaek half-time and goal-timing data (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Sarpsborg 08 FF half-time and goal-timing data (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Stabaek 60% and Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Stabaek 73% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 67%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Stabaek surrender their half-time lead 43% of the time, while Sarpsborg 08 FF have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stabaek 1.04 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stabaek attack 0.890 / defence 0.902 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.963 / defence 0.697. League average goals — home 1.674 / away 1.147. Sarpsborg 08 FF bring a tight defence (rating 0.697, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Stabaek's projected output down. Data: built from Stabaek's last 4 games and Sarpsborg 08 FF's last 34.
Result probabilities: Stabaek 34% | Draw 35% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 32%. Fair-value odds: Stabaek 2.96 | Draw 2.88 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 3.17. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Stabaek's last 10 home games and Sarpsborg 08 FF's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches point the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Stabaek 60% (last 10 home games) | Sarpsborg 08 FF 80% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stabaek vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 5 | Venue: Nadderud Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 7 May 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stabaek 34% | Draw 35% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Stabaek 1.04 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Stabaek attack 0.890 / def 0.902 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.963 / def 0.697 | league avg home 1.674 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Stabaek xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
43%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stabaek vs Sarpsborg 08 FF FAQs
What time does Stabaek vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Stabaek vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 7 May 2023 at Nadderud Stadion.
What was the final score in Stabaek vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Stabaek 1 - 1 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Where is Stabaek vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at Nadderud Stadion.
What competition is Stabaek vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Stabaek vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 5) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stabaek vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Stabaek a 34% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 32% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Stabaek vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Stabaek and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Stabaek vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Stabaek's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defensive record (0.70x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. Flip it around — Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack (0.96x) against Stabaek's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from Stabaek's last 4 games and Sarpsborg 08 FF's last 34 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.96
35%
2.88
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Stabaek xG
Total xG
2.04
1.00
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
2.96
34%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
12%
8.03
11%
8.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 13.0 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stabaek vs Sarpsborg 08 FF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stabaek vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Stabaek and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Stabaek and 1.00 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Stabaek vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Stabaek's recent record stands at 6W 7D 17L from 30 games, a 0.83 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-L in the last five.
Sarpsborg 08 FF, meanwhile, have gone 12W 5D 13L across 30 games — 1.37 PPG, with W-D-D-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sarpsborg 08 FF by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stabaek heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Stabaek have managed 4W 3D 8L from their last 15 home games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's away record stands at 6W 2D 7L across their last 15 away games, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Stabaek are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 2.07 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.90 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stabaek have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Sarpsborg 08 FF in 70%.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stabaek
Pre-Season
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Current Season
Stabaek (Home) vs Sarpsborg 08 FF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stabaek
Pre-Season
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Current Season
❓ Stabaek vs Sarpsborg 08 FF Form FAQs
What form are Stabaek and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
Stabaek have gone 6W 7D 17L in their last 30 games (0.83 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 12W 5D 13L in their last 30 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stabaek at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stabaek at home: 1.00 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Stabaek and Sarpsborg 08 FF, the earliest from July 2020. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent in our data was on 29 October 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sarpsborg 08 FF won Sarpsborg 08 FF 4-0 Stabaek on 3 Oct 2020, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stabaek have gone 1W 2D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sarpsborg 08 FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Stabaek
3
Draws
2
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Stabaek vs Sarpsborg 08 FF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Stabaek have won 1, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stabaek and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 October 2023: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-2 Stabaek.
Who has won more matches between Stabaek and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stabaek 47%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Stabaek and 73% for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 73% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stabaek have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stabaek home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stabaek vs Sarpsborg 08 FF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stabaek and Sarpsborg 08 FF matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Stabaek's games and 73% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Stabaek and Sarpsborg 08 FF matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Stabaek's matches and 73% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's.
Do Stabaek and Sarpsborg 08 FF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Stabaek's recent matches and 93% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stabaek and Sarpsborg 08 FF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Nadderud Stadion, Regular Season - 5, as Stabaek and Sarpsborg 08 FF drew 1-1 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stabaek 1.04 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.00 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stabaek attack 0.89 / defence 0.90 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.96 / defence 0.70, drawn from 4/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stabaek 34% | Draw 35% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stabaek 73%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stabaek's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sarpsborg 08 FF arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Stabaek (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.