Torino 1-1 Monza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Monza at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Torino vs Monza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Monza make the trip to Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino to face Torino in Serie A, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Sunday 7 May 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Torino's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Torino at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Monza (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Monza have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Torino against 1.60 for Monza. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Torino lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2022, ended 2–1 with Torino winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Torino goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Monza goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Torino 51% versus Monza 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Torino 39% | Monza 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Torino 0.90 xG and Monza 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Torino attack 0.747 / defence 1.103 | Monza attack 1.007 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 1.162. Torino's attack strength of 0.747 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 71 Torino games / 33 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Torino 25% | Draw 30% | Monza 45%. Fair-value odds: Torino 4.00 | Draw 3.33 | Monza 2.22. Monza hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Monza are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Monza if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Torino 40% | Monza 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Torino vs Monza | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino • Kick-off: Sunday 7 May 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Torino 25% | Draw 30% | Monza 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Torino 0.90 / Monza 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Torino attack 0.747 / def 1.103 | Monza attack 1.007 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.282 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Monza (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Torino xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Monza xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Torino vs Monza kick off?
Torino vs Monza kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 7 May 2023 at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
What was the final score in Torino vs Monza?
Torino 1 - 1 Monza.
Where is Torino vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
What competition is Torino vs Monza part of?
Torino vs Monza is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Torino vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Torino a 25% chance of winning, Monza a 45% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Monza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Torino vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Torino and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will Torino vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and Monza?
Record (1 meetings): Torino 1W | Draws 0 | Monza 0W.
What form are Torino and Monza in?
Torino (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Monza (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Torino's attack at 0.75x the league average against Monza's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 0.90 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Monza's attack (1.01x) against Torino's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 71/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monza Win
25%
3.93
30%
3.37
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Torino xG
Total xG
2.19
1.29
Monza xG
3.93
25%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
41%
2.46
Win to Nil
7%
14.31
18%
5.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 14.4 | 9.3 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Torino vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Torino and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Torino and 1.29 for Monza, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Torino vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 71 outings, Torino have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 25W 20D 26L record — L-D-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Monza's form line: 34W 16D 21L from 71 games, 1.66 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for Torino against 1.66 for Monza. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Torino have posted 1.40 PPG from 35 outings (13W 10D 12L).
On the road, Monza have gone 14W 8D 13L from 35 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Torino are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 1.52 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 71 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Torino
Current Season
Monza
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Torino and Monza in coming into this match?
Torino have gone 25W 20D 26L in their last 71 games (1.34 PPG), while Monza have gone 34W 16D 21L in their last 71 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Torino at home or Monza away?
Monza's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Torino at home: 1.40 PPG; Monza away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Torino or Monza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Torino have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Monza in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Torino have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Monza — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Torino
3
Draws
0
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and Monza?
From 6 meetings on record, Torino have won 3, Monza have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Torino and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when Monza 0-2 Torino.
Who has won more matches between Torino and Monza?
Torino have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Torino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Torino 49%, Monza 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Torino) and 49% (Monza).
On the defensive side: Torino have failed to score in 29% of games; Monza in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Torino home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Torino play Monza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Torino's recent matches and 49% of Monza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Torino vs Monza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Torino's recent games and 49% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Torino and Monza tend to score early?
Torino have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Monza in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Torino and Monza share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Regular Season - 34, as Torino and Monza drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Torino 0.90 xG and Monza 1.29 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Torino attack 0.75 / defence 1.10 against Monza attack 1.01 / defence 0.94, drawn from 71/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Torino 25% | Draw 30% | Monza 45%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Torino 39%, Monza 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Torino's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Monza's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Torino 1.34 PPG, Monza 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.