Ham-Kam 0-4 Molde – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ham-Kam at 50%, yet in-form Molde provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ham-Kam vs Molde fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Briskeby Arena plays host to Ham-Kam versus Molde in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Sunday 7 May 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ham-Kam have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Briskeby Arena, Ham-Kam have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Molde (all games): 10W 0D 0L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 3.00 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Molde's away record: 9W 1D 0L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Molde are the stronger side — 2.20 PPG clear of the hosts (3.00 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Ham-Kam have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Molde in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Ham-Kam 0W, Molde 1W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Oct 2022, ended 0–5 with Molde winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Ham-Kam — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Molde — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ham-Kam 70% and Molde 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 53% | Molde 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.45 xG and Molde 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.978 / defence 0.768 | Molde attack 0.941 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.674 / away 1.147. Ham-Kam's defence rating of 0.768 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 34 Ham-Kam games / 35 Molde games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 50% | Draw 31% | Molde 20%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 2.00 | Draw 3.23 | Molde 5.00. Ham-Kam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ham-Kam as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Molde (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ham-Kam if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Ham-Kam 60% | Molde 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs Molde | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 7 May 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 50% | Draw 31% | Molde 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Ham-Kam 1.45 / Molde 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 0.978 / def 0.768 | Molde attack 0.941 / def 0.883 | league avg home 1.674 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Ham-Kam (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Molde xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ham-Kam vs Molde kick off?
Ham-Kam vs Molde kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 7 May 2023 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs Molde?
Ham-Kam 0 - 4 Molde.
Where is Ham-Kam vs Molde being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs Molde part of?
Ham-Kam vs Molde is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs Molde?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 50% chance of winning, Molde a 20% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Ham-Kam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Molde?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Ham-Kam and Molde will score (BTTS).
Will Ham-Kam vs Molde have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Molde?
Record (2 meetings): Ham-Kam 0W | Draws 1 | Molde 1W.
What form are Ham-Kam and Molde in?
Ham-Kam (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Molde (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Ham-Kam's attack at 0.98x the league average against Molde's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Molde's attack (0.94x) against Ham-Kam's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 34/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.3%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ham-Kam Win
50%
2.01
31%
3.26
20%
5.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
2.27
0.83
Molde xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
5.09
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
22%
4.61
5%
21.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 12.3 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 8.9 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs Molde?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and Molde expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 0.83 for Molde, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs Molde?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 30 outings, Ham-Kam have picked up 1.03 PPG on a 6W 13D 11L record — D-D-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Molde's form line: 25W 3D 2L from 30 games, 2.60 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Molde are the form team by 1.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ham-Kam.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ham-Kam have posted 1.20 PPG from 15 outings (4W 6D 5L).
On the road, Molde have gone 13W 2D 0L from 15 away games — 2.73 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Molde come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ham-Kam are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Molde are on 2.37 scored and 0.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ham-Kam have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Molde in 60%.
Defensively: Molde in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Current Season
Molde
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ham-Kam and Molde in coming into this match?
Ham-Kam have gone 6W 13D 11L in their last 30 games (1.03 PPG), while Molde have gone 25W 3D 2L in their last 30 (2.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ham-Kam at home or Molde away?
Molde's away record (2.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ham-Kam at home: 1.20 PPG; Molde away: 2.73 PPG.
Have Ham-Kam or Molde been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ham-Kam have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Molde in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Molde go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Molde won 5-0 on 9 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ham-Kam have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Molde — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Ham-Kam
2
Draws
6
Molde
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Molde?
From 9 meetings on record, Ham-Kam have won 1, Molde have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and Molde last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Molde 4-1 Ham-Kam.
Who has won more matches between Ham-Kam and Molde?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ham-Kam 60%, Molde 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Ham-Kam) and 60% (Molde).
On the defensive side: Molde in 40%; Ham-Kam have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / Molde away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ham-Kam play Molde?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Ham-Kam's games and 60% of Molde's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ham-Kam vs Molde usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Ham-Kam's recent games and 60% of Molde's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ham-Kam and Molde tend to score early?
Ham-Kam have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Molde in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Molde run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Ham-Kam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Molde beat Ham-Kam 0-4 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 1.45 xG and Molde 0.83 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Ham-Kam fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Molde outscored their 0.83 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 0.98 / defence 0.77 against Molde attack 0.94 / defence 0.88, drawn from 34/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 50% | Draw 31% | Molde 20%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Molde win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 53%, Molde 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ham-Kam's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Molde's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 2.60 PPG against 1.03. That form edge translated into the three points. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Molde (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.