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Under 2.5 Goals Predictions

Fixtures ranked by highest under 2.5 probability — Saturday 29 April 2023

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Under 2.5 goals lands when a match produces 2 goals or fewer. Our prediction model sums the probability of every scoreline with 2 goals or fewer — 0–0, 1–0, 1–1, 2–0 and their mirror images. Only fixtures with 55%+ probability are shown.

20 fixtures cleared the bar on Saturday 29 April 2023. Northampton vs Bradford sits top on 79% in the League Two. The shortlist runs from 79% down to 65%, so the tail is materially weaker than the top.

The shortlist spans seven different competitions, a broad spread rather than one division dominating.

Of the 20 fixtures on this list that have since finished, nine landed the under 2.5 goals market — 45%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.

Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

League Two · England 79%

Under 2.5 79% BTTS No 69%

Primeira Liga · Portugal 77%

✓ Under 2.5 77% ✓ BTTS No 70% ✓ Benfica Clean Sheet 53%

Veikkausliiga · Finland 77%

✓ Under 2.5 77% ✓ BTTS No 65%

Premier League · Russia 77%

Under 2.5 77% BTTS No 69%

League One · England 77%

Under 2.5 77% ✓ BTTS No 69%

Ligue 2 · France 76%

✓ Under 2.5 76% ✓ BTTS No 69%

Ligue 2 · France 73%

Under 2.5 73% BTTS No 65%

Veikkausliiga · Finland 72%

Under 2.5 72% ✓ BTTS No 60%

Ekstraklasa · Poland 71%

✓ Under 2.5 71% ✓ BTTS No 62%

#10

Premier League · England 70%

Under 2.5 70% BTTS No 63%

#11

Championship · England 70%

✓ Under 2.5 70% BTTS No 64%

#12

Premier League · Ukraine 70%

Under 2.5 70% BTTS No 62%

#13

Super League 1 · Greece 69%

✓ Under 2.5 69% ✓ BTTS No 62% ✓ Asteras Tripolis Clean Sheet 53%

#14

League Two · England 69%

Under 2.5 69% ✓ BTTS No 61%

#15

League One · England 69%

✓ Under 2.5 69% ✓ BTTS No 61%

#16

K League 1 · South-Korea 68%

✓ Under 2.5 68% ✓ BTTS No 60%

#17

Ekstraklasa · Poland 66%

✓ Under 2.5 66% ✓ BTTS No 57%

#18

Thai League 1 · Thailand 65%

Under 2.5 65% BTTS No 61%

#19

Super League 1 · Greece 65%

Under 2.5 65% BTTS No 57%

#20

Super League 1 · Greece 65%

Under 2.5 65% BTTS No 54%

Showing top 20 fixtures by under 2.5 probability (a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.

Related markets

Low Scoring Both Teams to Score – No Over 2.5 Goals

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Under 2.5 Goals — common questions

What does the Under 2.5 Goals market mean?

Under 2.5 Goals settles on whether a match finishes with 2 or fewer total goals. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.

How does Fixture360 calculate under 2.5 goals probability?

Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The under 2.5 probability shown here is the probability of 2 or fewer total goals, summed across every scoreline in the model's matrix. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.

How many fixtures qualified for Under 2.5 Goals on Saturday 29 April 2023?

20 fixtures met the criteria, led by Northampton vs Bradford at 79% under 2.5 probability.

Which fixtures appear on this page?

Fixtures with a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.

How accurate are these under 2.5 goals predictions?

Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.

Are these predictions betting tips?

No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.